Does Dice-K Fear MLB Hitters?

The pitcher's pattern grew more and more frustrating (not to mention tiring) as the season wore on: the constant nibbling, the sudden bursts of wildness, the excessive amount of pitches, his inability to pitch deep into games. 

All this, and we haven't even mentioned his puzzling decision to virtually shelve his best pitch, the change-up, which breaks sharply down-and-away from left-handed batters. 

Last season, the second in his big league career, Daisuke Matsuzaka won 18 games against just 3 three losses, posting an impressive winning percentage of .857 (2nd among AL starters, min: 160 IP) and an equally brilliant 2.90 ERA. 

But those dazzling numbers belie what was, for the most part, an enigmatic season for perhaps the world's most recognizable pitcher. 

Despite possessing an arsenal of  devastating pitches -- a fastball, curveball, slider, cut fastball, change-up, sinking fastball and sometimes a splitter -- Matsuzaka, 26, walked more batters per nine innings (5.05) than any other pitcher in baseball, save for Giants lefty Barry Zito (5.10), who's among the worst pitchers in baseball (Zito's 5.15 ERA last season ranked 81st among 88 big league starters with at least 160 IP). 

But during the early rounds of the World Baseball Classic, the Japanese right-hander seemingly reinvented himself -- by attacking the strike zone, challenging hitters with his fastball and even flashing a handful of brilliant change-ups (one of which caused a Cuban left-handed batter to lose control of his bat, the piece of lumber flying toward second-base). 

During his first outing of the WBC, against Korea, Matsuzaka tossed four innings, allowing four hits, two runs and two walks while striking out one batter. Perhaps more impressively, Matsuzaka was somewhat economical (for him) with his pitches, throwing just 65 pitches (39 strikes) in his four innings of work. 

In his second, and most impressive, outing of the WBC, Matsuzaka dominated team Cuba in sun-drenched Petco Park in San Diego. Tossing six innings of shutout ball, Dice-K scattered five hits, allowed no walks and struck out eight batters. Demonstrating good control, Matsuzaka threw just 85 pitches (61 strikes) en route to picking up his second win of the WBC. 

Here's a look at Matsuzaka's Pitch f/x chart from his start against Cuba, courtesy of Brooks Baseball. 

As you can gleam from the chart, Dice-K, unlike last season, pitched in the strike zone and challenged hitters from the Cuban National team. 

This chart, from the catcher's view, breaks down each of Matsuzaka's pitches. Clockwise, we have the change-up (five of them!), the four-seamer, the cutter and finally the slurve. 

Before any further analysis, I want to focus on the change-up for a second. 

When Pedro Martinez was at his peak, his change-up was unquestionably his signature pitch. Darting sharply down-and-away from lefties (and thrown about 10-12 MPH less than his fastball, from the same arm angle) Pedro's change-up was so good that Red Sox broadcaster Jerry Remy liked to say opposing batters couldn't hit the pitch even if Pedro told them it was coming.

While Dice-K's change isn't as great as Pedro's, which may have been the greatest of all-time, it's still a plus pitch -- and perhaps his best -- that he grossly underuses. Last season, according to Baseball Fangraphs, Dice-K threw his change-up just 3.8% of the time, an astonishingly miniscule amount when compared to his fastball (52%), slider/slurve (23%) cutter (15%) and curve (4.2%). 

I still haven't been able to wrap my head around this. Often times I'll lay awake at night wondering why Matsuzaka neglects his change-up. Note to Dice-K, Jason Varitek and whoever else catches him this season:
 
IT IS HIS BEST PITCH AND IT THROWS HITTERS OFF BALANCE. LEFTIES WILL ROLL IT OVER MORE TIMES THAN NOT. USE IT.

 
At this point in the WBC tournament, Dice-K's line read: 2 wins, 10 IP, 9 hits, two walks, 9 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA. Of his 150 pitches, he threw 100 for strikes. Matsuzaka's strike percentage (66%) in his first two WBC outings was a little bit better than his tally during the 2008 regular season (60%). 

In his 3rd start against the United States, however, Dice-K reverted back to his old form -- nibbling his way through four and two-thirds innings that can only be described as "mind-numbing."

During his outing, Matsuzaka allowed five hits, two runs, three walks and struck out one batter. He threw 98 pitches, 57 for strikes. 

While Dice-K threw most of his pitches in the zone, I want to point your attention toward the right-hand (or outside, to right-handed hitters) part of the zone. Here you notice Matsuzaka's misguided attempts to hit the corner. 

Let's crank this up another notch and look at Dice-K's pitches against America's right-handed hitters (RHH). 

Here we see some nibbling and begin to discern a clear pattern. Against RHH's, Dice-K attempts to work the outside part of the zone while almost completely avoiding the inner-half. 

But what about his start against Cuba? Surely he likes to work away to all right-handed batters. 

As you can see from this graph, Matsuzaka had no qualms about challenging Cuba's hitters on the inside part of the plate. Against the U.S RHH's, on the other hand, Dice-K wouldn't go near the inner-part of the plate. 

Furthermore, we see this same pattern against lefties. First, we'll look at his plot against American left-handed hitters (LHH). 

Remember, this is the view from the catcher's standpoint. Here we see a gaping hole in the upper-right of the zone, or the inner-half of the plate (against a lefty batter). 

Now, let's look at his plot against Cuba's LHH's. 

Notice anything different? Against Cuba's LHH's, Dice-K shows no hesitation to attack the inner-part of the plate. 

So what can we gleam from all of this information? I'm not a professional scout, and I don't get paid (yet) to analyze baseball, but these graphs clearly illustrate that Dice-K avoids the inner-half of the zone against American hitters while attacking it against foreign competition. 

Old time baseball adage says you "challenge" hitters by rearing back and throwing the ball over the inner-to-middle part of the plate. That's why, in the midst of a tight game, you'll always hear an announcer say, "if he's going to beat you, make him beat you away," which is another way of telling a pitcher to throw everything to the outside part of the plate and not impersonate John Wayne on the mound.

So when a major league pitcher challenges international batters on the inner-part of the plate but actively avoids challenging major league hitters in the same area, one can come to the conclusion that said pitcher is intimidated by MLB hitters, perhaps excessively so. 

And for someone with such a dynamite repertoire, it's simply inexcusable.