Bay's Signing Boosts a Flawed Club

In Jason Bay, the Mets get the middle-of-the-order bat they desperately needed while assuaging a fan base hell-bent on acquiring big-name talent at any cost.

Bay, as you might have heard, is a right-handed slugger with classic "old player" skills. He strikes out often and doesn't boast high batting averages, but his ability to take a walk and hit for power make him one of the best offensive outfielders in baseball. Bay's .921 OPS last season lead all AL OF's, and his prodigious pull-power should fit well in Citi Field, an expansive park that's actually quite kind to sluggers with Bay's swing path. His troubles with breaking balls are well-documented, but he can rope a fastball with the best of them.

While Bay provides ample value with the bat, his glove is enough of a problem to call into question the prudence of Mets GM Omar Minaya, who handed the 31-year-old Bay a contract valued at $82 million over five years. Sophisticated defensive metrics, such as UZR and Fielding Bible, rank Bay among the worst left-fielders in baseball. Now, as Keith Law pointed out, Fenway's quirky confines have a tangible effect on these defensive ranking systems. A 314 foot fly ball to LF is a 'can of corn' in 29 other MLB parks, but in Fenway it's a wall-ball double if not a round-tripper. UZR hasn't yet adjusted for this phenomenon, making Red Sox LF's inherently underrated. Which means Bay, like Manny before him, probably isn't quite as wretched as the metrics suggest, though it's still a stretch to call him adequate. Bay was able to mask his defensive limitations 81 games a year, but his deficiencies with the leather quickly became apparent in some of the AL's bigger ballyards (Seattle, Oakland, LA). And now that Bay's left to patrol the expanse of Citi Field -- not to mention the rest of the NL East, which houses huge parks in Atlanta and Florida -- his limited range, feeble arm and bulky knees should turn the visiting-half of home games into a Ringling Brothers act.

So we know the Mets forked over a bunch of money to a one-way player masquerading as a major league outfielder. But how much is Bay worth annually? Did the Mets overpay? Let's find out.

First, when determining the value or "worth" of a player, it's important to explain what teams are actually striving for: replacement wins. In the course of a major league season 4,860 games are played. 2,430 of those games are won, and 2,430 are lost. Further distilling the schedule, a team of rag-tag replacements can be expected to win, at minimum, 48 games*. Which means on the eve of Opening Day 2010 you can etch in stone 48 W next to each team's name in the standings. So with an additional 1,440 wins out of play (48 wins x 30 teams), that leaves 990 "replacement wins" (2430 - 1440) to decide who's playing in October and who's booking tee times with Tiger at the Playboy Club.

Estimating the amount of money major league teams pay for these valuable replacement wins is tricky, but it can be done. First, you take the total money spent on payroll (2.67 billion) and divide that amount by the number of replacement wins (990). That gives us 2.31 million, which won't get you very far in the free agent market. I'll let someone much smarter than I explain the rest of the process.

*since WWII, only three teams have failed to win 48 games in a season: the '52 Pirates, the '03 Tigers and, you guessed it, the '62 Mets.

Courtesy of Fangraphs:

If you want to compete in the market for available wins, you have to know what the going rate for a win is, and the easiest way to calculate that is to look at the free agent market. Let’s look back at 2007, for instance. 90 free agents signed major league contracts last winter, ranging from Alex’s Rodriguez $275 million deal to Josh Towers‘ $400,000 contract with the Rockies. The sum of those 90 contracts paid out $396 million in 2008. To figure out what the average cost per win of a 2007 free agent was, though, we need to know how many wins that group was worth.To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008. In total, I came up with 88 wins, or $4.5 million per win. That’s what major league teams were paying for a marginal win last winter, so for 2008, that’s a players dollar per win value as listed on the site. I re-did this for all years going back to 2002, and the dollars per win for each are as follows:

2002 – $2.6m / win
2003 – $2.8m / win
2004 – $3.1m / win
2005 – $3.4m / win
2006 – $3.7m / win
2007 – $4.1m / win
2008 – $4.5m / win

Bill James and some astute fans on Baseball Fangraphs project Bay to be worth 30.7 runs next season, or 3.1 wins (10 runs = 1 win). To put a dollar figure on Bay's 2010 value, we'll simply multiply his projected performance (3.1 wins) by the market rate for a win ($3.5 million in this miserable economy). Which makes the answer to our initial question -- how much is Jason Bay worth annually? -- $10.85 million.

The Mets are overpaying slightly for Bay's services next season, but an extra $5 million for a big market club like the Mets won't hamper the franchise going forward. In the successive years of Bay's contract, however, that $5 million in lost value likely will balloon to a more cringe-inducing figure as Bay enters his decline phase and inevitably moves to 1B because he can't handle the outfield without a clown car.

The Mets added a nice hitter here, but paying $16 million per season to a one-way player on the wrong side of 30 isn't the type of move that should inspire feelings of confidence from a dedicated fan base, as it's not going to vault a flawed team up the totem pole. The Mets still have several issues to address, particularly in their starting rotation, which boasts one front-line pitcher and a host of question marks, resulting from injuries (Maine), inconsistency (Pelfrey) and incompetence (Perez).

Why Beltre is a No-Brainer

This off-season, I fully expect Angels leadoff man Chone Figgins to garner most of the free agent buzz at third base. Figgins, 32, is coming off a career year both at the plate and in the field. He posted a high on-base percentage (.395), dazzled with the glove and ran around the bases like Secretariat at The Belmont.

But another AL West third baseman strikes me as the better play for a club desperately seeking a power infusion and top-notch defense.

His name is Adrian Beltre.

When discussing Beltre the first thing that comes to mind is his glove. For numerous reasons – subjectivity in categorizing hit type (line drive, fly ball, etc), ball speed, defensive positioning – Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR), a metric that determines how many runs a fielder saves or costs his team relative to a league average defender at his position, can’t be trusted entirely. But both UZR and the Fielding Bible have reached a pretty strong consensus on Beltre’s defensive ability: he’s tremendous, and somewhere around 12-15 runs above average.

So, if Mike Lowell bounces back and regains some of his range at third, how much of an upgrade does Beltre represent? I’m unaware of the team’s numbers and medical reports, of course, but it wouldn’t shock me one bit to find out Beltre’s a dozen runs better with the glove, probably more, as Lowell ranked dead last in virtually every respected defensive measure (UZR rated him 10 runs below average, while Fielding Bible was equally unkind).

Offensively, aside from his outlier contract year in 2007, Lowell has pretty consistently posted a batting line (.338 OBP/.465 SLG roughly) which translates to 4-5 runs above the average hitter. Beltre, on the other hand, has displayed similar on-base skills and more power while doing his work in a pretty tough hitters’ park, Safeco Field, which massacres right-handed batters. Beltre's park-adjusted runs above average (RAA) numbers typically have rested in the +8-10 area.

His shoulder and groin injuries from this past season aside, Beltre’s three-year splits average out to .327 OBP and .468 SLG, or an OPS+ of 108 – 4 percent higher than Lowell’s output. By performing a crude ballpark adjustment using Baseball Reference’s park averages, we can expect Beltre’s Fenway batting line to reach .339/.488 -- or 10 runs above average – provided his offensive skills haven’t tapered off. Should Beltre fail to realize his three-year splits, he’s still Lowell’s equal with the bat and more than a win better on defense.

If you need further proof, Fangraphs recently conducted a study comparing Beltre’s slugging percentage on fly balls hit at Safeco Field to fly balls hit on the road, as well as the angle of those balls in play. What they found, unsurprisingly, was Beltre hit for more power away from cavernous Safeco. But it was such a significant disparity that, in Dave Allen's words, makes Beltre "in many other ballparks... an above average offensive player. He has the chance to be a solid free agent signing once again.”

As for the direction of his power, it’s mostly concentrated to left-center and hard left-field. After reading their study I couldn’t help but think it should’ve been titled “Why The Red Sox Should Sign Adrian Beltre.”

Using Marcel’s 3-2-1 salary projection system, Beltre would rightly command $13.5 million per season on the free agent market. That takes into account his dismal 2009 season with the bat (.304/.379), when he was still overall a more valuable player than the Red Sox’ incumbent.

While Figgins’ defense is exceptional, the brunt of his offensive value stems from A) his newfound ability to get on base at an elite level (which may or may not be sustainable) and B) his legs. He’s certainly one of the more underrated players in the game, but if the Red Sox front office truly wants to improve its offensive production away from Fenway Park – a problem resulting from drastic home/road splits throughout the lineup, particularly in the power department -- it can ill-afford to supplant Lowell’s bat (.335/.384 on the road) with Figgins’ career .097 ISOp. That doesn’t fix the problem. As past studies suggest, adding a low OBP, high slugging player to an OBP-heavy lineup provides more value than simply signing another high OBP, low slugging guy, like Figgins.

Conclusion: Beltre looks to be a two win upgrade over Lowell. With him and the newly acquired Marco Scutaro manning 3B and SS, respectively, the left-side of the Red Sox' infield will have made significant strides in the run prevention department.

N.L. East Should Be Great

In a division featuring the defending World Champions, a team with baseball's 2nd highest payroll and another with perhaps the game's best young rotation, it's easy to forget about the Atlanta Braves. After all, the Braves haven't been to the postseason in four years, and last year they finished with just 72 wins, their worst showing since 1990.

In the offseason, GM Frank Wren, looking to vault Atlanta back to the top of the standings, made pitching a priority. After failing to complete a deal for Padres starter Jake Peavy and then losing out on free-agent A.J. Burnett, Wren traded for White Sox starter Javy Vazquez, signed veteran Derek Lowe to a four year deal worth $60 million, and plucked starter Kenshin Kawakami from Japan.

And now the Braves, who for so long rode its elite pitching to 15 consecutive division titles, find themselves just four games out of the NL East, with perhaps the Senior Circuit's best pitching staff.

Vazquez, who fell into manager Ozzie Guillen's dog house on the South Side, has been a revelation in Atlanta. Among NL starters, Vazquez ranks 9th in ERA (3.04), 2nd in K's (125), 1st in K/9 (10.55) and 3rd in the ever-important K/BB ratio (5.43).

The rest of Atlanta's rotation has been almost as impressive. Jair Jurrens ranks 8th in the NL in ERA (2.93). Lowe has struggled but is unbeaten within the division. Tommy Hanson hasn't allowed a run in his last 20 innings and beat both the Red Sox and Yankees in successive outings. Kawakami has a 3.18 ERA in his last 10 starts. And the back end of the bullpen, with co-closers Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano, prevents opposing teams from mounting late-inning rallies.

Entering today, the Phillies, Mets and Marlins and Braves are separated by just four games in the ultra competitive National League East. While close in the standings, each team has chosen distinct paths to achieve success.

The Phillies, who last year captured their 2nd World Series title in franchise history, sit atop the division despite considerable struggles from its starting rotation, whose 5.21 ERA ranks dead last in the NL and 28th in MLB, ahead of only Baltimore and Cleveland. But like last year, the Phillies have relied on one of the game's most potent lineups to carry their team. Among NL clubs, the Phillies rank 2nd in runs (391), 1st in slugging (.450) and 1st in OPS (.786).

Next we have the upstart Florida Marlins. With a young lineup featuring, among others, one of baseball's most dynamic players in Hanley Ramirez, and a rotation comprised of fireballers Josh Johnson, Chris Volstad, Andrew Miller and Ricky Nolasco (3.52 ERA, 186/42 K:BB ratio in 212 IP last year), the Marlins entered this season with heightened expectations, a popular dark horse chosen by baseball pundits. This season, despite being outscored by 24 runs, the Marlins sit just one game back of the Phillies, having gone 9-4 in their last 13 games. The Fish rank 5th in the NL with 362 runs scored, but have relied heavily on ace Josh Johnson. The 24-year old ranks 4th in the NL in ERA (2.76), 7th in strike outs (97), and 2nd in quality starts (14), one behind Dan Haren.

And finally the Mets, who are three games back despite suffering a rash of debilitating injuries. As of today, Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes and Carlos Delgado are out, as are pitchers John Maine and setup man J.J. Putz. Playing in cavernous Citi Field, the 2nd worst hitters yard in baseball to Petco Park, some Mets players have had to completely revamp their approach at the plate. David Wright, who has averaged 29 HR's per season since becoming a full-time player in 2005, has just five long balls in 2009, but ranks 2nd in the NL in batting average (.341), 3rd in OBP (.432) and 5th in doubles (23). And unlike last year, when Metropolitans relievers poured gasoline onto every smoldering rally, the bullpen has held late-inning leads. Mets relievers rank 5th in the NL in ERA (3.70), 5th in save percentage (67%, tied with the Brewers) and 6th in OPS against (.712).

At this juncture of the season it's tough to pick winner, as each team has glaring holes. The Phillies need a front-line starter (Bedard?), the Mets need to get healthy and find a serviceable starter (Penny? Garland?), the Marlins could use another bat and a reliever (Saito? Street? Valverde?). The Braves, who rank 13th in the NL in runs scored and 24th overall, desperately need a right-handed power bat (Jermaine Dye says hello, same with Matt Holliday).

If you held a gun to my head and asked me to pick a team, I'd probably say the Braves. With that pitching staff they can beat anyone in the game, and they have the chips to deal for whomever they want.

Random Thoughts

1) Today, for the first time since May 27, 2008, Dice-K made it through a start without allowing a walk. Think about that for a second. 

2) Remember in April when I wrote that Mike Lowell was having an overrated season, and eventually his limited range, lack of patience and penchant for GIDP's would come back to bite the team? *pats self on back

3) Can someone institute a petition to request McDonald's to bring back its "two hash browns for $1" deal? Those golden-brown, grease-laden pieces of Heaven make for the world's best (and healthiest) breakfast. Imagine two hash browns washed down by an Arnold Palmer. I think I might faint. 

4) Which travel option makes the most sense? Paying $195 for a roundtrip, 7-hour train ride to Washington D.C., or ponying up $161 for a roundtrip, one-hour and 45 minute Jetblue flight to Dulles, on which I have my choice of 40 cable channels and hundreds of XM satellite stations. Why does anyone ride trains again?

5) Jessica Biel AND Elisha Dushku took in Saturday night's Sox-Rangers game. Dear.God.

6) How badly do I not want to see Kobe win a title? I'll put it somewhere between "spinal tap" and "nuclear holocaust" on My List of Things I Hope Not to Experience.

7) During the Dave Matthews Band concert at Fenway -- I know what you're thinking and, look, Willie Nelson opened for him -- a 12 oz Miller Lite went for $8.25. I'm beginning to think this wasn't a wise investment. 

8) Is it just me, or has anyone else ever wondered how a person becomes a ticket scalper? Are there certain qualifications for this job? Are they innate, or can these virtues be taught? The way I see it, to become an enterprising scalper you need all of the following:

a pair of dirty sweatpants (preferably gray)

a matching hoodie

3-week facial stubble

a BUM or Champs Sport windbreaker (cannot have been purchased after 1995)

a thick, indigenous accent

the ability to discreetly mutter the phrase "anybody need 'em" for 6 hours a day

a friend whose name ends with the sound "EE" -- Joey, Donnie, Danny, Murphy

most importantly: absolutely nothing exceeding a G.E.D. 

Fire and Ice

I realize all my posts have been about baseball, so I thought I'd take a few lines to wax poetic about the restaurant Fire and Ice. If you've never been, I highly recommend it. And if you're a college student, or an Emerson College graduate whose school identification card lists no graduation date (why don't they do this??), you can eat anything you want on Monday's for $10. It's college night, and it rocks. 

Anyhow, the restaurant features ample selections -- burgers, chicken tenderloin, fish, fruit, sausage and salad-bar type counters teeming with various kinds of pasta -- all at your fingertips, or more aptly your hands. Instead of ordering your meal, you simply walk up to the salad-bar counters (what are these things called?) pile the raw food onto a plate and walk it over to a massive, oval shaped grill located in the center of the room. The chefs, usually a sprightly bunch of late-20-somethings unafraid of creeping on random girls, throw your food onto the grill and cook it entertainingly -- usually they twirl spatulas in the air, or better yet frisbee-toss cheese slices onto your burger while standing 5-feet clear of the intended patty. 

After devouring your first plate, the cycle repeats. 

I'm Lazy But Here's an Update

Because of my semi-busy schedule I haven't updated my blog in nearly a week. Earlier today I endured an agonizing two-hour rain delay and killed time by eating oyster crackers in the press box. Mercifully, the game was called at around 4:00 PM, when it was clear to everyone involved that the precipitation would not subside. 

Making news on an otherwise slow news day was the announcement from Detroit Tigers President and GM Dave Dombrowski that the Tigers will not trade superstar slugger Miguel Cabrera should the team sputter in the early going. Already reeling from the economic crisis (some reports claim the team has lost upwards of 12,000 season tickets this year), the Tigers were rumored to be dangling Cabrera, who's currently in the 2nd year of his 8 year $152 million contract. 

Should the Tigers reverse course and put Cabrera on the trading block, the Red Sox are expected to be among several teams interested in the 2008 AL home-run leader. 

In case you missed it, Tim Wakefield tossed another gem today, allowing just one run in 7 innings as the Sox dismantled the Twins, 10-1. Wakefield, coming off a near no-hitter in Oakland, scattered 5 hits and struck out 4. According to my computer screen, Wakefield's knuckler was indeed dancing, as he continually baffled the Twins with butterflies breaking as much as 14 inches vertically while moving nearly a foot to either side. 

Wakefield Truly One of a Kind

You know how the phrase "he's way ahead of his time" is used to describe revolutionary figures who redefined their crafts? Babe Ruth smacked 60 home-runs during an era in which teams, several teams, accounted for less. A young fighter named Cassius Clay bloviated and jived with such remarkable rhythm decades before rappers and look-at-me athletes emulated his style. And Marty McFly, at the unforgettable Enchantment Under The Sea dance, made his guitar do things about which Jimy Hendrix could only dream. 

You know who's another revolutionary figure? Tim Wakefield. No, Wakefield hasn't reinvented the pitching wheel, nor has he altered the batter-pitcher duel. But perhaps as impressively, Wakefield, with his 65 MPH butterflies flickering to the plate, producing off balanced and untamed swings from the opposition, has extended a quirky subset of pitching long in danger of extinction. Of course, I'm talking about knuckleballers. 

Since 2000, when knuckler Tom Candiotti called it quits after 16 years in the big leagues, only eight knuckleball pitchers* besides Wakefield -- R.A. Dickey, Ryan Jensen, Jared Fernandez, Cody McKay, Steve Sparks, Dennis Springer, Charlie Zink and Charlie Haeger --  have appeared in the big leagues. Their collective results are less than inspiring. 

*I've defined knuckleball pitchers as hurlers whose primary weapon is the knuckler. Pitchers who may have dabbled with the knuckleball for a pitch or two did not qualify.

McKay pitched just two innings for the Cardinals in 2004 and did not allow a run.  Ryan Jensen dabbled with the butterfly for a few years before returning to conventional form in 2005. Jared Fernandez, with just over 100 career big league innings a 5.05 ERA, hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006. Steve Sparks, after leading the majors in complete games (8) in 2001, accumulated a 5.38 ERA in the final 524 innings of his career, retiring in 2004. In his only three full seasons of work (1997, 1998, 1999) Dennis Springer posted an ERA+ -- the ratio of his ERA to the league average ERA, adjusted for ballpark. A 100 ERA+ is average -- of 90, 87 and 89, respectively. Charlie Zink made one start with the Red Sox last season and allowed eight earned runs in four and one-third innings. Charlie Haeger, in his only major league start in 2006, allowed five earned runs in just over four innings pitched for the White Sox. And R.A. Dickey, although still appearing in the big leagues from time to time, once allowed 6 HR's in three innings of work against the Texas Rangers. 

Which brings us to Wakefield, the only knuckleball pitcher in the last decade to sustain tangible success at the big league level. Drafted as an outfielder by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1988 Amateur Draft (8th round), Wakefield hit .189 in his first season of minor league ball with the Watertown Pirates (Single A). He was so bad the Pirates contemplated releasing him, which would have ended his career (if you're a minor leaguer who can't break the Mendoza line, there are no second chances). 

One day, however, Wakefield's fortunes and life forever changed. While playing catch with a teammate (or is it having a catch? I'm confused), a Pirates instructor spotted Wakefield throwing some variation of a knuckleball and thought the pitch, with some further refinement, might prolong the struggling outfielder's career. Twenty years later, with 179 wins and two would-be LCS MVP's to his name -- Wakefield was superb in the '92 NLCS against Atlanta, winning two games and allowing just 6 runs in 18 innings. In the '03 ALCS, Wakfield notched two wins and a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings, allowing a series ending walk-off homer to Aaron Boone. Both series went the full 7 games. -- Wakefield continues to shine. He stands just 27 victories shy of tying Roger Clemens and CY Young (192 wins apiece) as the winningest pitchers in Red Sox history. He baffled the American League in 1995 en route to a scintillating 14-1 start, finishing the season at 16-3 with a 2.95 ERA, the latter of which ranked 2nd best among AL starters (Randy Johnson lead the league at 2.48). 

Fittingly, after enduring a three game slide and a bitter 2-6 start, Wakefield put the rest of the Sox on his shoulders today, the ageless right-hander tossing a complete game in which he allowed just four hits, two runs and took a no hitter into the 8th inning. 

Wakefield simply bedazzled an Oakland lineup that so thoroughly dominated pitchers Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka the previous two nights. His performance couldn't come at a better time, as Manager Terry Francona, thanks to Matsuzaka's abysmal 1 inning 5 run performance, was forced to dip into his bullpen in the 2nd inning of last night's 12-inning affair. 

With all the talk about the Sox' considerable pitching depth -- Michael Bowden, John Smoltz, Clay Buccholz and Justin Masterson each provide the team with a viable option for the rotation should someone fall to injury -- Wakefield often gets lost in the shuffle.  He is a 42-year old knuckleball pitcher who has battled back, oblique and shoulder problems for the previous three seasons. But his performance today, when his team needed it most, speaks volumes to his ability and perseverance that allowed him to transform himself from floundering minor league outfielder into one of the game's most consistent producers. 

No, Wakefield is not ahead of his time. But he acts as a reminder of the game's glory days, a relic that inspires memories of doubleheaders, 10 cent hotdogs, two-hour game times and grainy footage. His story, and everything he now represents, reminds me of a Time magazine from Michael Jordan's second retirement. On the cover was a picture of Jordan's face, calmly stationed in front of a dark backdrop. Under the picture was a caption that read "We May Never See His Likes Again." 

A Masterpiece

On Easter Sunday 2004, a half decade ago, my life was in its middle stages of adolescence. 

At the time I had yet to graduate high school or earn my driver's license. At the time I still adhered to a staunch 11 PM curfew and passed the time by mounting plastic reindeer in provocative positions and playing the eternally addictive game Vice City. To top it all off, I still rooted fervently for a team mired in an 86-year championship drought and couldn't finish off a six pack of Bud Light if you paid me. 

What does this have to do with anything? Well, on that chilly, wind-swept Easter Sunday -- on which David Ortiz smacked his first walk-off blast in a Red Sox uniform, foreshadowing a magical season full of impossible feats (for him and the team) -- I witnessed the greatest Masters final round of my lifetime. 

That is, until yesterday. 

What made 2004 so special was that Phil Mickelson, mired in a burdensome drought of his own, snapped an 0-46 record in major championship play to capture his first Green Jacket, the left-hander shooting a 4-under par 32 on Augusta's fabled back 9 and draining a 20-foot birdie putt on 18, amidst a throng of sweaty patrons stacked more than a dozen deep, to earn a one shot victory.

What made yesterday so special -- the great play, the Sunday roars the sudden death playoff holes -- cannot be adequately put into words. Paired together in the final round of a major for the first time in seven years, the Nos. 1 and 2 ranked golfers in the world, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, began their Masters Sunday afternoon with a flurry. 

Woods began his day with a birdie at the par-5 2nd hole but fought his swing for much of the opening nine. A wayward tee shot on the 5th resulted in Woods' scrambling to save par, and an errant approach to the par-4 7th left him navigating a slick, 50-foot downhill putt on the sloping Augusta greens. 

But on the par-5 8th, at 570 yards the longest hole at Augusta, Woods' fortunes (and swing) improved. With his 2nd shot, his ball sitting 275 yards away from a green located some 30-feet above him, Woods nutted a 3-wood to within 35-feet and drained the putt for an eagle 3. 

Hard to believe, but Woods' 3-under par 33 on the front nine looked almost pedestrian when compared to Mickelson's dazzling performance. With birdies at 2,3,5,6,7 and 8, Mickelson took the turn after shooting a 6-under par 30, the lowest front nine score in a final round in Masters history. 

The two heavyweights brought their fight to the back nine, trading birdies at 13 and 15 and finding themselves just two shots back of leader Kenny Perry. But Mickelson, after hitting his tee shot into Rae's Creek on 12 and missing a short putt for eagle on 15 and another for birdie on 17, simply gave away too many shots and ended his day, perhaps fittingly, by giving a shot back at 18. 

Tiger brought the crowd to its feet and the roars to their apex by knocking his approach shot on the famed par-3 16th to within 5 feet, converting the next putt for a birdie 2 and putting himself within striking distance of the leader. But like his counterpart Mickelson, Woods appeared to run out of gas, bogeying 17 and 18 en route to a final round 68 and a 6th place finish. 

While neither Woods nor Mickelson took home the Green Jacket, they provided the patrons -- at Augusta they're not fans, they're patrons -- with a memorable duel and the tournament with an unmistakeable gusto that it had sorely lacked in recent years. As Bob Harig of ESPN said, "They replaced victory...with memory."

The heavyweights now departed, it looked for all the world that 48-year old Kenny Perry, one shot clear of the field, would capture his first ever major. At the 16th, the hole that has played witness to so many of Augusta's most cherished moments and indelible images -- from Jack's emotional near-ace in 1986 (he had tears in his eyes walking up to the green) to Tiger's improbable chip-in four years past -- Perry appeared to engender a memory of his own, sticking his approach shot to within inches of the cup. After tapping in for birdie, Perry pulled two shots ahead of Chad Campbell and the charging Angel Cabrera, who made a birdie on 16 himself. 

To this point in the tournament Perry had worked the ball from right to left, his natural trajectory, hitting fairways and greens and making enough putts to put him in the driver's seat. Indeed, despite possessing average length off the tee, Perry had so brilliantly navigated Augusta's elongated confines and strategically placed pin locations that a two-shot lead with two holes to play seemed nearly insurmountable. 

But the pressure of holding a lead in a major, on the final leg of the Masters, proved once again to be an equalizer. Like Curtis Strange, Seve Ballesteros and (more famously) Greg Norman before him, Perry succumbed to the nerves and tension so inherent at Augusta National. With bogies at 17 and 18, Perry fell back into a three-man playoff with Chad Campbell and Angel Cabrera. 

After exchanging pars on the 73rd hole, played on the 18th, Cabrera and Perry walked a few feet to the 10th tee. Campbell, who played a magnificent tournament and lead going into the weekend, failed to convert a 7-footer for par and was eliminated. 

In the middle of the fairway, with nary a breeze bristling atop the stately pines, Perry hooked his short iron into the pine straw, effectively dismantling his tournament hopes. Cabrera, who knocked his approach to within 18 feet, two putted for par and the championship. 

With that par came the Argentine's first Green Jacket, and his resulting fist pump an emotional coda to the most exciting Masters Sunday of my lifetime. 

A Masterpiece, indeed. 

Lester's Workload, The Bird and Last Minute Picks

Here's a number potentially critical to the Sox' success this season: 77. 

Including the postseason, Jon Lester tossed 237 innings last season, a 77-inning jump from his 2007 total (160 IP). Regardless of one's medical history, studies have shown that pitchers who experience a significant jump in innings pitched from one season to the next (usually around 30 IP or more for young guys) are at greater risk of suffering an arm injury. 

In 2003, former Cubbie Mark Prior pitched 234.2 innings, sixty-seven more (167.2) than he threw the previous season (minor league numbers included). Prior, who began the 2004 season on the DL due to a strained achilles tendon, has since suffered a rash of arm injuries that has resulted in two major surgeries (both on his right shoulder) and significant time on the disabled list. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006. 

While Prior is the poster-child of pitcher abuse, the damage isn't limited to him. Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels, who logged more than 260 innings in 2008 (71 more than the previous season), has already experienced soreness in his elbow and will miss Opening Day. 

Tom Verducci, the venerable Sports Illustrated baseball scribe who authored Joe Torre's infamous book The Yankee Years, has spent years researching the effects of increased workloads on young hurlers. 

Entering the last three seasons (2006-08), Verducci identified 24 pitchers as being in the "danger zone" based on an increase in innings of 30 or more before their 25th birthday. Of those 24, 16 suffered injuries that year. Only one of the 24 at-risk pitchers managed to get through that "year-after" without an injury or a worse ERA (Ubaldo Jimenez of the 2008 Rockies). The average increase in ERA was more than a full run. The casualty list includes Francisco Liriano, Anibel Sanchez, Gustavo Chacin, Fausto Carmona, Scott Mathieson, and Dustin McGowan, to name a few.

Furthermore, the offer goes on to offer this damning nugget:

For 2009, Verducci has identified 10 young pitchers in the danger zone. Hamels ranks second to Boston's Jon Lester on the list as ranked by increase in workload.

Perhaps the most tragic pitcher abuse story is that of Mark Fidrych. In 1976, The Bird, as he was called, electrified the baseball world with his bizarre, humorous antics and considerable talents.  At the ripe age of 21, Fidrych hurled 250 innings at a 2.34 ERA. He was voted Rookie of The Year and finished second in the Cy Young race behind the Hall-of-Famer Jim Palmer. 

The Bird, who led the AL with 24 complete games that year, simply captivated the auto-haven of Detroit. To say The Bird was eccentric is to say Erin Andrews is cute. The man talked to baseballs on the mound. He appeared to build sand castles during games, when he was pitching. He was given his nickname because people thought he resembled Big Bird from Sesame Street. 

As you can imagine, Tigers fans (and the rest of baseball, for that matter) immediately took to him. When asked if they've seen Fidrych pitch, the Tigers faithful responded, "Who's Fidrych?" But when asked if they've seen The Bird pitch, they'd exalt. 

Indeed, The Bird was such a popular figure that, in order to escape the incessant media requests, he purposely didn't own a telephone (if you wanted to talk to him, you had to knock on his door). In that 1976 season, The Year of The Bird, the Tigers drew roughly 1.5 million fans. Amazingly, 40% of that figure (some 600,000 people) showed up when Fidrych took the mound. 

But, like all great parties, his time was short lived. In 1977, just one year after his magical season, The Bird suffered a broken wing (torn rotator cuff) that would go misdiagnosed for nearly eight years. As a result, he never pitched 100 innings in any future season and was out of baseball by 1981. 

Let's hope Lester doesn't suffer the same fate. 

I've been extremely lazy with my predictions, so I'll throw out a few last minute prognostications before Brett Myers takes the mound tomorrow night. 

NL East:

1st Place: Mets 93-69 - With K-Rod and the superior Putz (if healthy) at the back end of the 'pen, The Metropolitans won't blow 29 saves like last season. 

2nd Place: Phillies 89-73 - The ageless Jamie Moyer is due for a regression (3.71 ERA). And Chan Ho Park doesn't belong in a big league rotation. 

3rd Place: Braves 84-78 - Javier Vazquez (214 K's, > 3:1 K/BB ratio) will be a force in the weaker NL. Derek Lowe, workhorse and ground ball extraordinaire, will benefit from one of the best infield defenses in baseball. 

4th Place: Marlins 80-82 - By season's end they could have the best starting staff in the NL. And by Opening Day they could have the worst defense in the game. 

5th: Nationals 67-95 - Skipper Manny Acta has his work cut out for him. With Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris in his outfield and Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn at first-base, he'll need to mix and match the lineup to keep everyone happy. Here's a thought: play Dukes, Milledge and Dunn full-time and tell the other guys to make the most of their limited playing time. 

American League West

1st Place: Oakland Athletics 85-77 - With the additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera, the AL's worst offense can expect a significant boost this season. Don't be surprised to see a 60-70 run improvement. Left-hander Brett Anderson, with a hammer curve and plus command, is a good Rookie of The Year dark-horse. 

2nd Place: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 82-80 - Even with Mark Teixeira last season, LAA finished 10th in the AL in runs scored. With the inferior Kendry Morales at 1st and the rapidly aging Vlad Guerrero in right-field (he looks like a cross between Abe Vigoda and Lieutenant Dan on the bases) the Angels will field one of the AL's most feeble lineups. Couple that with the injury-ravaged rotation -- Ervin Santana is out indefinitely; John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are out until May -- and you have a recipe for regression in 2009. 

3rd Place: Texas Rangers 74-88 - With one of the game's best farm systems, the Rangers' days of contending aren't far away. They'll score around 900 runs, but with one of the league's worst pitching and defense combinations, they'll allow close to 1000 runs, again. 

4th Place: Seattle Mariners 69-93 - With Endy Chavez in left, Franklin Gutierrez in center and Ichiro returning to right-field, the M's boast the best defensive outfield in the majors. According to The Fielding Bible, Chavez and Gutierrez were two of the best outfield glove-men in baseball last season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Eric Bedard will appreciate the added help. 

American League Central

1st Place: Cleveland Indians 86-76 - After last year's All-Star game, the Cleveland Indians scored more runs than any team in the game. Grady Sizemore, who plays a gold-glove quality center-field, is the Tribe's best hitter and a perennial MVP candidate. But the reason the Indians' offense took major strides last season was the play of Shin-Shoo Choo (1.038 OPS after the break), Asdrubal Cabrera (.398 OBP after the break) and Ryan Garko (.868 OPS in the 2nd half). And with Kerry Wood in the back of the pen and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation, the Indians have the requisite pitching to win the Central. 

2nd Place: Minnesota Twins 84-78 - It's never a good sign when your best player -- in the Twins case, catcher Joe Mauer -- suffers a back injury that baffles medical experts. While a change in medication has combatted the inflammation, the Twins have set no time-table for Mauer's return. The good news for Twinkies followers is that the starting rotation, led by young phenom Franciso Liriano, is be the best in the division. Strike-throwers Scott Baker (3.45 ERA with a 3.6 K/BB ratio in '08) and Kevin Slowley (35 BB's in 227 career innings) round out the front three. 

3rd Place: Chicago White Sox 81-81 - Aside from Mark Buehrle and John Danks, who last season quietly became one of the best pitchers in the AL, question marks abound. Gavin Floyd pitched well in '08, but expect him to come back to earth in '09. Last season, Floyd held opponents to an unsustainable .268 batting average on balls in play (his career average is .314). Unless Floyd is a baseball revolutionary who can control the direction of a batted ball, expect his ERA (3.84 last season) to balloon. 

In his last 500 innings pitched, Jose Contreras has a 4.82 ERA. The Cuban defector missed the final two months of last season with a ruptured achilles tendon. 

Rounding out the rotation is the rotund Bartolo Colon. Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young award winner, has battled a rash of injuries and hasn't thrown more than 100 innings in a season since winning his Cy Young trophy. 

4th Place: Detroit Tigers 76-86 - They've made major improvements defensively (Adam Everett could be a 20-run upgrade over the departed Edgar Renteria, Brandon Inge at 3rd), but the pitching thin Tigers simply lack the horses to contend. 

While Justin Verlander looked superb this spring, Nate Robertson is no longer a viable major league starter. Right-hander Zach Miner is a back of the rotation guy (at best). Edwin Jackson has a live arm, but he's nothing more than league average right now (101 ERA+ in '08). Furthermore, it's never a good sign when an embattled General Manager (Dave Dombrowski) resorts to rushing his most prized young arm to the big leagues (flamer-thrower Rick Porcello) as a last-ditch effort to save his job. 

5th Place: Kansas City Royals 75-87 - I don't get it. Baseball scouts, analysts and front office types have anointed the Kansas City Royals -- yes, the Royals -- as the sleeper team of 2009. Perhaps the Royals biggest flaw last season was their inability to get on base. Getting on base is, you know, important. They finished 26th in the league in on-base percentage (.320) and attempted to rectify the problem by adding Coco Crisp (career .331 OBP) Mike Jacobs (career .318 OBP) and the below replacement level Willie Bloomquist (do I even need to list his career OBP? Fine. It's .322. And his career slugging percentage (.324) is nearly as decrepit). 

The top end of the staff (Gil Meche and Zack Greinke) is admirable, but any big league rotation that contains Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez isn't a big league rotation at all. 

Tomorrow, I'll unveil my AL East picks with (hopefully) a complete analysis. In the meantime I've got to get some rest before I head to Fenway in the morning. Manager Terry Francona is having a presser at 2 PM, and hopefully I'll be able to attend. I'm not sure if it's at all possible, but I'd like to ask him about Lester's workload. 

15 Things I'm Looking Forward To This Year

I've realized that roughly 130% of my posts have been about baseball. With that in mind, I've decided to shake things up a bit and talk about myself. 

In no particular order, here's a list of events I'm looking forward to in 2009. 

1. Patriot's Day. Although I'm working the game, I plan on getting smashed at Copperfield's afterward. This could be my last Patriot's Day for a few years, so I plan on enjoying it. 

2. Douglas' 4th of July party, home to the world's most competitive croquet tournament. Thankfully, the Board of Governors convened this winter and, in a 5-4 decision, voted to outlaw the "sweep-shot." 

3. Master's Sunday. It's on Easter Sunday, which means I'll be watching it in HD at my parent's house. And you know I'll be blasting that sucker full-bore when the first piano key of the Augusta Theme is struck. 

4.  My first MLB paycheck. To say I'm due for a paycheck is like saying Nicholas Cage is due for a good movie. 

Side note: Still haven't decided if I should take Carty's advice and frame it. Maybe I'll frame the pay stub. I really need the cash. 

5. The first 70 degree day, colloquially known as "Halter Top Day."

6. A bar crawl? Looks like Greg Kulaga is coming up for a visit in mid-May and wants to do a bar crawl. Yes and yes. 

7. John Smoltz's first start at Fenway. Perhaps my favorite non-Sox player of all-time, Smoltz is due to receive a thunderous ovation on his way to the 'pen for pre-game warmups. 

8. My next trip to Eagle's Deli. This place is so delicious and the portions so generous that I need not justify its inclusion on this list. 

9. The inter-league series vs The Mets. Not only will I get to meet Ed Coleman, but there's a remote chance both Mike and The Mad Dog will attend at least one of the games. 

10. Bumping into Peter Gammons in the Media Dining Room at Fenway. How do I strike up a conversation? Should I ask him about the burgers?

11. Finding out where I'm going to be living next Fall. That's always a fun one. 

12. The first "Blue Jays Shopping Ace Halladay" headline, followed by Yankees fans inundating ESPN chat rooms and asking Keith Law, "is Melky and Kennedy too much for Halladay?"

13. Winning my fantasy baseball leagues, again. And yes, that's "leagues" with an S. 

14. Eating at UBurger this summer. Better start loosening the belt-buckle right over and get it over with. 

15. I don't want to jinx it, but hopefully I'll be able to play in the Courier Cup Classic, otherwise known as the vaunted wiffleball tournament from back home. 

NL Central Predictions

It's been a while since my last (and only) set on predictions, and with opening day just three days away it's time to make some hasty predictions. So without further ado, here are your National League Central predictions. 

1st place: Chicago Cubs 92-70

The class of the Senior Circuit, the Cubs tout arguably the league's best starting rotation and combine it with an improved lineup that led the NL in scoring last season by nearly 60 runs. 

After getting swept in the NLDS by the Dodgers, scoring just six runs in three games, the Cubs set out to bolster it's heavily right-handed lineup by adding a lefty masher.  

They found a good one. 

The Cubs this offseason inked outfielder Milton Bradley, who turns 31 in April, to a 3-year $30 million deal. The switch-hitting Bradley served primarily as DH for the Texas Rangers in 2008 and lead all AL hitters in on-base percentage (.436) and OPS (.999). The Cubbies are banking on the mercurial and oft-injured Bradley, who hasn't played more than 100 games in the field since 2004, to stay healthy and play right-field this season. With a feeble bench, the Cubs lack the necessary punch to replace Bradley should he suffer another infirmity. Signing him was a risk, but when you're the Cubs, it's one worth taking. 

Say it ain't so Lou...Last week Cubs skipper Lou Pineilla announced that reliever Kevin Gregg, who compiled 29 saves with the Marlins last season, will be the team's Closer to start the season. Carlos Marmol, considered the presumptive Closer when spring training began, will return to his role as set-up man. Last season, Marmol fanned an unthinkable 114 batters in just over 87 innings (11.75 K/9 before handing the ball over to former Cubs Closer Kerry Wood (now a Cleveland Indian). It's a puzzling decision by Pineilla, to say the least. Gregg blew 9 saves last season and walked 37 batters in 68 innings. But like Billy Koch, Joe Borowski and Joe Mesa before him, Gregg has been branded with the scarlet "C" -- signifying his role as Closer -- which means all the evidence suggesting he's a terrible (and lucky) reliever is eschewed in favor of an unquantifiable ability to Take The Ball When The Game Is On The Line. 

2nd Place: St. Louis Cardinals 84-78

Cards Manager Tony LaRussa provides ample fodder for his critics. His DUI conviction not withstanding, LaRussa's incessant over-managing -- LaRussa's decision to bat his pitchers eighth comes off as a strained attempt to make him look like a baseball revolutionary, and his bizarre propensity to burn-through three relievers every 7th inning dramatically slows the speed of the game --  and steadfast defense of disgraced slugger Mark McGwire has contributed to an image defined by arrogance and condescension. 

To Larussa's credit, he guided an underwhelming Cardinals team -- most prognosticators had them finishing as low as 4th place -- to a respectable 86 wins and runner- up finish in the Central. Lest anyone think LaRussa was solely responsible for the Cards' overachieving, Pitching Coach Dave Duncan deserves honorable mention and a hardy kudos for a job well done. 

Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer combined last season for 590.2 IP and a 3.88 ERA -- great production from any NL front-three, much less these three characters. Suffice to say, the odds of Lohse, Looper (now with the Brew Crew) and Wellemeyer repeating their performances from last season are astronomical. But with Duncan at the helm, and the weaker competition in the NL, nothing would surprise me. 

Defense...wins...championships: How many times have you heard this cliche? 500? 10,000? More? That cliche certainly rings true in football and basketball, but until recently MLB front-offices either relegated defensive efficiency to the periphery or ignored it all together. But now, with the introduction of The Fielding Bible coinciding with the Tampa Bay Rays' epic ascension to the top of the standings, teams are finally understanding the value of defense and constructing their ball clubs accordingly. 

But Pratt, you ask, what does this have to do with the St. Louis Cardinals? With the departure of Cearas Izturis at shortstop and the inclusion of Kahlil Greene, the Cards may have the worst defense in the game. Their outfield, with statutes Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel (strong arm be damned) and Ryan Ludwick, is at best well-below average and at worst a gaping black hole. Their infield, save for Albert Pujols (more on him in a second), is just as execrable. 

A team's ability to convert balls in play into outs has a discernible and sometimes dramatic effect on its capability to prevent runs (take a look at the Phillies' defense last year and how it contributed to their success). That in mind, the Cards' pitching staff has its work cut out for them, as they should expect little help from the men behind them. 

As for Pujols, studies conclude that his work around the bag is just as remarkable as his ability at the plate. Furthermore, the guys at The Fielding Bible claim he's the best defensive player in the game, relative to his position. Did I mention he's still 29 years old?

3rd Place: Milwaukee Brewers 83-81

The optimism surrounding the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers seems unfounded. After losing C.C. Sabathia to free agency and Ben Sheets -- still without a job -- to injury, the Brewers began their offseason faced with the daunting task of having to replace 329 innings and a tidy 2.52 ERA. In other words, an impossibility. 

This year the Brew Crew heads into 2009 with a rotation of Yvonni Gallardo, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra and the newly acquired Braden Looper -- a far cry from the luxury they enjoyed with two aces headlining their rotation. 

Despite the feeble rotation, the Brewers, who watched Eric Gagne, Solomon Torres and company blow 26 saves last season, should enjoy a stabilized back-end of the 'pen with the addition of all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. Now 41, Hoffman still has some fire left in the tank. He struck out just over a batter an inning for the Padres last season and posted a 1.81 ERA after the break. 

4th Place: Cincinnati Reds 78-84

This century, the Cincinnati Reds have been an exercise in futility. Since acquiring Ken Griffey Jr. in the winter of 2000, the Reds have just one winning season and a cumulative record of 673-785 (.462). 

Like the Rays and Brewers before them, the Reds this season are the sexy pick. Front-office executives, baseball scouts and people paid to analyze the game have anointed the Reds as the dark-horse team of 2009. The optimism stems from the team's young, powerful arms, in particular Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto. 

Volquez, 25, led the Reds last season in wins (17) innings (196) strikeouts (206) and ERA (3.21) (min: 50 IP). Cueto, after a scintillating debut, cooled off down the stretch but still fanned 158 batters in 174 IP. At age 22, expect great things from Cueto going forward. 

Rounding out the Reds' starting five is veteran Aaron Harang, who reportedly dropped 25 pounds this offseason after losing 17 games and posting a 4.78 ERA in 2008; Bronson Arroyo, who scuffled last season (4.77 ERA) despite lasting 200 innings; and Micah Owings, perhaps better known for his prowess at the plate than on the mound. In a pitching starved league, this rotation could be one of the NL's deepest and most effective. 

Keep an eye on Votto: 22-year old Jay "The Boss" Bruce, who clubbed 21 HR's last season in 413 at-bats, garners most of the media and fan attention, but first-baseman Joey Votto, 25, posted an .874 OPS in his rookie season. Moreover, he plays excellent defense and his .368 OBP was 2nd best on the team. (Adam Dunn, who was traded to the Dbacks in July, ranked first at .373). 

5th Place: Houston Astros 72-90

Put it this way. When you hand Ivan Rodriguez (.319 OBP last season) a $3 million contract based on his 20 at-bats in the World Baseball Classic -- when no other team would go near him -- and that's your biggest acquisition of the offseason, then you might as well start booking tee-times for October. 

If Peter Angelos weren't such an enormous prick, Astros owner Drayton McLane would hold the ignominious title of "Worst Owner in Baseball." Come to think of it, the O's, under new Team President Andy MacPhail, seemed to have begun the arduous process of turning around their organization and appear to be headed in the right direction. So I guess that means McLane is the worst owner in the game. Years of competitive delusions and poor drafting have contributed to the Astros' free-fall in the Central, and the blame begins and ends at the top.  

Beware of The Puma: For whatever reason, Lance Berkman's nick-name is "The Puma." Why? I have no idea. Maybe he likes the shoes. 

More to the point. Since the beginning of the decade you'd be hard-pressed to find too many hitters who combine production and consistency better than Lance Berkman. He's a career, .302/.413/.560 hitters who plays great defense at first-base. Last season, Berkman hit .312, clubbed 29 HR's, scored 114 runs and drove in 106,, hit 46 doubles, drew 99 walks and posted a .420 OBP (4th in the NL). He stole 18 bases (a career high) and was caught just four times. Had the Astros been in playoff contention, he may have been the NL MVP. 

6th Place: Pittsburgh Pirates 67-95

The Pirates haven't enjoyed a winning season since Barry Bonds packed up shop and moved out to San Francisco following the '92 season. Expect nothing to change in 2009. 

The Pirates' starting five is the worst in the NL, with Ian Snell (5.42 ERA last season) grabbing the torch as the team's de facto "ace." Pat Maholm, Zach Duke, Russ Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens round out the rotation. Pitching Coach Joe Kerrigan -- Brian Cashman's mole, if Tom Verducci and Joe Torre are to be believed -- has rehabbed his share of make-shift rotations, but even Joe's magic is rendered impotent against this bunch. 

Nate McClouth Is Overrated: Gold-Glove be damned. Nate McClouth is perhaps the worst center-fielder in the Majors. McClouth hit just .270 after the break last season, and is one of the biggest regression candidates of 2009. Good thing the Pirates brass inked him to a new deal. 

Does Dice-K Fear MLB Hitters?

The pitcher's pattern grew more and more frustrating (not to mention tiring) as the season wore on: the constant nibbling, the sudden bursts of wildness, the excessive amount of pitches, his inability to pitch deep into games. 

All this, and we haven't even mentioned his puzzling decision to virtually shelve his best pitch, the change-up, which breaks sharply down-and-away from left-handed batters. 

Last season, the second in his big league career, Daisuke Matsuzaka won 18 games against just 3 three losses, posting an impressive winning percentage of .857 (2nd among AL starters, min: 160 IP) and an equally brilliant 2.90 ERA. 

But those dazzling numbers belie what was, for the most part, an enigmatic season for perhaps the world's most recognizable pitcher. 

Despite possessing an arsenal of  devastating pitches -- a fastball, curveball, slider, cut fastball, change-up, sinking fastball and sometimes a splitter -- Matsuzaka, 26, walked more batters per nine innings (5.05) than any other pitcher in baseball, save for Giants lefty Barry Zito (5.10), who's among the worst pitchers in baseball (Zito's 5.15 ERA last season ranked 81st among 88 big league starters with at least 160 IP). 

But during the early rounds of the World Baseball Classic, the Japanese right-hander seemingly reinvented himself -- by attacking the strike zone, challenging hitters with his fastball and even flashing a handful of brilliant change-ups (one of which caused a Cuban left-handed batter to lose control of his bat, the piece of lumber flying toward second-base). 

During his first outing of the WBC, against Korea, Matsuzaka tossed four innings, allowing four hits, two runs and two walks while striking out one batter. Perhaps more impressively, Matsuzaka was somewhat economical (for him) with his pitches, throwing just 65 pitches (39 strikes) in his four innings of work. 

In his second, and most impressive, outing of the WBC, Matsuzaka dominated team Cuba in sun-drenched Petco Park in San Diego. Tossing six innings of shutout ball, Dice-K scattered five hits, allowed no walks and struck out eight batters. Demonstrating good control, Matsuzaka threw just 85 pitches (61 strikes) en route to picking up his second win of the WBC. 

Here's a look at Matsuzaka's Pitch f/x chart from his start against Cuba, courtesy of Brooks Baseball. 

As you can gleam from the chart, Dice-K, unlike last season, pitched in the strike zone and challenged hitters from the Cuban National team. 

This chart, from the catcher's view, breaks down each of Matsuzaka's pitches. Clockwise, we have the change-up (five of them!), the four-seamer, the cutter and finally the slurve. 

Before any further analysis, I want to focus on the change-up for a second. 

When Pedro Martinez was at his peak, his change-up was unquestionably his signature pitch. Darting sharply down-and-away from lefties (and thrown about 10-12 MPH less than his fastball, from the same arm angle) Pedro's change-up was so good that Red Sox broadcaster Jerry Remy liked to say opposing batters couldn't hit the pitch even if Pedro told them it was coming.

While Dice-K's change isn't as great as Pedro's, which may have been the greatest of all-time, it's still a plus pitch -- and perhaps his best -- that he grossly underuses. Last season, according to Baseball Fangraphs, Dice-K threw his change-up just 3.8% of the time, an astonishingly miniscule amount when compared to his fastball (52%), slider/slurve (23%) cutter (15%) and curve (4.2%). 

I still haven't been able to wrap my head around this. Often times I'll lay awake at night wondering why Matsuzaka neglects his change-up. Note to Dice-K, Jason Varitek and whoever else catches him this season:
 
IT IS HIS BEST PITCH AND IT THROWS HITTERS OFF BALANCE. LEFTIES WILL ROLL IT OVER MORE TIMES THAN NOT. USE IT.

 
At this point in the WBC tournament, Dice-K's line read: 2 wins, 10 IP, 9 hits, two walks, 9 strikeouts and a 1.80 ERA. Of his 150 pitches, he threw 100 for strikes. Matsuzaka's strike percentage (66%) in his first two WBC outings was a little bit better than his tally during the 2008 regular season (60%). 

In his 3rd start against the United States, however, Dice-K reverted back to his old form -- nibbling his way through four and two-thirds innings that can only be described as "mind-numbing."

During his outing, Matsuzaka allowed five hits, two runs, three walks and struck out one batter. He threw 98 pitches, 57 for strikes. 

While Dice-K threw most of his pitches in the zone, I want to point your attention toward the right-hand (or outside, to right-handed hitters) part of the zone. Here you notice Matsuzaka's misguided attempts to hit the corner. 

Let's crank this up another notch and look at Dice-K's pitches against America's right-handed hitters (RHH). 

Here we see some nibbling and begin to discern a clear pattern. Against RHH's, Dice-K attempts to work the outside part of the zone while almost completely avoiding the inner-half. 

But what about his start against Cuba? Surely he likes to work away to all right-handed batters. 

As you can see from this graph, Matsuzaka had no qualms about challenging Cuba's hitters on the inside part of the plate. Against the U.S RHH's, on the other hand, Dice-K wouldn't go near the inner-part of the plate. 

Furthermore, we see this same pattern against lefties. First, we'll look at his plot against American left-handed hitters (LHH). 

Remember, this is the view from the catcher's standpoint. Here we see a gaping hole in the upper-right of the zone, or the inner-half of the plate (against a lefty batter). 

Now, let's look at his plot against Cuba's LHH's. 

Notice anything different? Against Cuba's LHH's, Dice-K shows no hesitation to attack the inner-part of the plate. 

So what can we gleam from all of this information? I'm not a professional scout, and I don't get paid (yet) to analyze baseball, but these graphs clearly illustrate that Dice-K avoids the inner-half of the zone against American hitters while attacking it against foreign competition. 

Old time baseball adage says you "challenge" hitters by rearing back and throwing the ball over the inner-to-middle part of the plate. That's why, in the midst of a tight game, you'll always hear an announcer say, "if he's going to beat you, make him beat you away," which is another way of telling a pitcher to throw everything to the outside part of the plate and not impersonate John Wayne on the mound.

So when a major league pitcher challenges international batters on the inner-part of the plate but actively avoids challenging major league hitters in the same area, one can come to the conclusion that said pitcher is intimidated by MLB hitters, perhaps excessively so. 

And for someone with such a dynamite repertoire, it's simply inexcusable. 

Fantasy Baseball Draft

"You mean they use real-life statistics to determine who wins when two teams play each other?"

"Yeah," I responded incredulously, somewhat appalled by her utter lack of understanding (or awareness) of the fundamentals of fantasy baseball.

"Ohhh," she said, still in disbelief that people dedicate such an inordinate amount of time to a virtual tournament, a tournament whose main prize is annual bragging rights and whatever amount of money its participants decide to pony up. 

Despite the (likely) possibility that she'll never again associate with me, I decided to give Steph a crash-course in fantasy baseball -- drafting techniques (you can always pick up useful pitching in the later rounds); the higher value placed on hitting (power-hitting outfielders and corner-infielders are always gobbled up by the 9th round); and the scarcity of elite catchers (after the Big Four, virtually no backstop is worth taking before the 10th round). 

"What skills do you need to be a catcher?" asked Steph. "Don't you just need to catch the ball?"

After explaining to her the immutable baseball principle that catchers -- who spend tens of thousands of innings squatting behind home plate, putting loads of undue stress on their bodies -- decline precipitously as they reach their mid-30's, I thought it was the perfect segue to offering her my analysis of last night's fantasy baseball draft. 

The Outcome

Overall, the draft was a bit of an oddity in that such a great emphasis was placed on starting pitching and elite catchers.

Traditionally, the truly elite pitchers --Pedro in '98, Pedro in '99, Pedro in '00, Pedro in '01 Pedro in '02, Pedro in '03, Johan Santana in '05 '06 '07 and '08 -- will get taken within the first three rounds and in rare occasions within the first two rounds. This year Old Man Bartlett got the ball rolling by taking Tim Lincecum in the middle of Round 2 (#14 overall), which incidentally sparked a domino effect that led to the selections of eight starting pitchers -- Johan Santana, Cole Hamels, C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett (more on this later), Roy Halladay, Chad Billingsley, Brandon Webb and Dan Haren -- before the end of the 5th round (Jake Peavy was taken with the first pick of the 6th round).  I've never been involved in a draft in which this many starting pitchers were taken off the board before I even made my 5th pick. 

Moreover, the Big Four catchers -- Russell Martin, Brian McCann, Joe Mauer and Geovanny Soto -- all were selected before I made my 4th pick in the draft. Catcher is a scarce position, with the aforementioned four guys firmly entrenched in the first-tier followed by huge drop-off to the second-tier (Ryan Doumit, Mike Napoli, Chris Ianetta). Firmly entrenched in the 800th-tier? Your own Jason Varitek. What made this development so strange was that, in some mock-draft scenarios, the top-4 catchers usually last until about mid-way through the 5th round. Needless to say, when Wolf grabbed Pratt stalwart Brian McCann with the #3 pick in the 4th round, I was a little pissed off. 

Although I missed out on my catcher of choice, these fantasy draft anomalies opened the door and allowed for some great bargains to be had. Like an old lady at a flea market down south, I scooped up on the cheap Carlos Quentin (projected 2nd rounder but got him in the late 4th round), Adam Dunn (7th round), rookie phenom Matt Wieters (11th round), Corey Hart (12th round) and the underrated Andre Ethier (16th round). 

As a result of these acquisitions, I can state unequivocally that this is the best offense I've sported in my 7-8 years of fantasy baseball. 

C- Posada/Wieters

1B- Albert Pujols

2B- Dustin Pedroia

3B- Kevin Youkils

CI- Adam Dunn

OF- Carlos Beltran

OF- Carlos Quentin

OF- Corey Hart

Util- Andre Ethier

My pitching:

SP-Beckett

SP-King Felix

SP- Edison Volquez

Closer-Kerry Wood

Closer- Huston Street

Closer- Old Man Trevor Hoffman

P- J.J. Putz (we play with holds)

P- Ted Lilly (17 wins 184 K's last season)

P-Derek Lowe

P- Chris Carpenter (hasn't allowed an earned run all spring)

P- Gil Meche

In case you haven't noticed, I really really really enjoy engaging fantasy baseball and everything that comes with it -- the draft, the trash talking, the chat room during the draft, the sleepers, the preparation and everything else. In particular, there were a couple moments (and comments) during last night's draft that really made the night hall-of-fame caliber. So without further ado, I've comprised a list of 11 pre-season awards and decided to hand them out in my blog.

Enjoy.

The Matt Millan award for "Worst Draft Pick of The Night"...

Goes to our long distance GM, Greg Kulaga, who inexplicably selected A.J. Burnett with the 10th pick in the 2nd round, 20th overall. Q, we understand that technical malfunctions are apt to occur, but I haven't laughed that hard since Mark Meagher tried to pick up girls at Funusual by showing them his Mario Kart driver's license. 

The Andy Reid and Donovan McNabb award for "Most Agonizing Clock Management Skills"...

To the old man, Dave Bartlett. Dave, I don't know if it's because you hit the Metamucil bottle hard before the draft, but I think you waited until the clock read 0:03 before before finally selecting your players.

The "Why Me?" Nancy Kerrigan award for the "Guy Who Was Most Upset When He Didn't Get His Favorite Player"...

To Mike Nadeau. It's ok, Du, you can come clean and admit that you shed a tear when Bragg selected Jed Lowrie at the beginning of the 20th round. He's sharp, gritty and white -- all of which appeal to you -- but there is light around that bend. Remember that.

The Donnie Sadler/Michael Olowakandi award for "Biggest Disappointment of The Draft"...

Goes to my old, old friend, Dave Carty, who inexplicably passed over a sure fire "Ace" with the 8th pick in the 23rd (and final) round. 

With the clock ticking and the chat room shaking from the deafening "GORZO-GORZO" chants, Old Man Carty -- much to the disappointment of the crowd -- passed on Pirates "ace" Tom Gorzelanny in favor of Joel Zumaya.

In the end, I guess he didn't want him badly enough.

The Old Yeller award for "Most Depressing Turn of Events in The Draft"...

To Matt Porter, for pointing out in the 7th round that David Ortiz was still on the board. 

Saddest Days of my life:

1) When we put my beloved cat down.

2) When Dale Earnhardt died. 

3) When Porter wrote, "nobody wants (Ortiz)."

The Minnesota Vikings award for "Biggest Draft-Day Blunder"...

Unfortunately goes to me. 

Back in the 2003 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings, holding the 7th selection, baffled the football world when the team failed to get its pick in before the unnecessarily long and agonizing 15 minute time limit expired. 

Likewise, during the 14th round last night, I mistakenly thought that Sam's team was on the clock when, in fact, my team was on the clock. So when the computer spit out Son of Sam...Leroy (my team) drafts Jorge Posada, a collective "What The Fuck????" permeated the chat room. 

Regrettably, the last blunder I committed to that degree involved an innocent, unassuming Shaw's Market bathroom stall and a poorly cooked chicken sandwich.

The Willis Reed "Rally of The Night" award...

Goes to Nick Bragg, who managed to finagle his way out of work so he could show up for the draft. By manning up, our friends at Elias Sports Bureau have informed me that Bragg helped the league achieve a "Perfect Attendance" draft night, believed to be the first ever in fantasy sports history. Thanks Bragg!

The Finally Doin' It award for "Best Inside Joke of The Draft"...

Goes to newcomer Ben Wolf, for his esoterically humorous team name "Gus It Up And Go."

Roughly five months ago, Wolf, Douglas, a few assorted characters and I all made our bi-monthly pilgrimage to Old Country Buffet. Our waiter, a sprightly old gal with a smile spread ear-to-ear, sported an Old Country Buffet name-tag on which "GUSSY" was embroidered in big, black lettering.

About half-way through the meal, I left the table to take a dump in order to cleanse my system so I could clear some space for a few dozen more of OCB's sweet, sweet chicken fingers. Naturally, I returned to the table and proudly announced that "I just took a huge shit." Unbeknownst to me, Gussy, ever diligent, had snuck up behind me to remove the empty dishes from our table. Upon hearing the words "I just took a huge s***," Gussy, visibly shaken by my crass pronouncement, quickly gathered up the dishes and was never seen again. 

Since then, whenever Wolf and I engage in conversation, we always address one another as "Gus."

The Pedro Points To The Sky award for "Signature Coda To The Draft"...

Goes to Alex MacDonald, who a mere seconds after the final selection exclaimed, "Now pay me my f------ money!"

The Mark Bellhorn award for "Most Unheralded Performance During Crunch Time"...

To my old, dear friend Dave Carty, who continually brought the house down with his Tom Gorzelanny remarks and this brilliant quip after Kulaga's selection of A.J. Burnett:

"Is DL stints a category?"

And finally...The Pete Rose award for "Biggest Gambling Addict in (Fantasy) Baseball...

To everyone's favorite hearing-impaired member of the league, Sam Leroy. 

30 minutes before the draft, upon realizing that I had the #2 pick, I half-jokingly said to Sam, "Man, I wish we could trade picks..I'd love to move about three spots back."

Little did I know that this would inspire a half hour's worth of Sam trying to concoct some devious and wholly unrealistic scheme in which we'd swap the #2 and #4 picks and then spend the rest of the draft making selections for each other. All that was missing from this scenario was a few betting slips and a half-hearted confession to Charlie Gibson. 

Until next year...

New Feature

So I've brainstormed a few ideas for the blog and I think I found a ringer: The Rick Reilly Mailed in Column of The Week. 

The premise is simple. Every week I'll dig through some of ESPN.com columnist Rick Reilly's "work," find a column with his patented recycled cliches and blather and then post the relevant snippets on my blog. 

Finding a Reilly hack-job shouldn't be too difficult, as his writing hasn't been informative or analytical since the latter part of the Clinton Administration. Finding a crappy Reilly column these days is like spotting a whore during spring break: they're everywhere. And furthermore, I don't want to limit this feature exclusively to his ESPN.com writing. We have thousands upon thousands of mailed in Sports Illustrated columns to choose from, and I for one would be disappointed if they were overlooked. 

So for our first edition of the Rick Reilly Mailed in Column of The Week, we'll travel back to April of 1998 -- back when our President was a philanderer, back when steroids were being passed around MLB clubhouses like Big League Chew, and back when Carson Daly was considered cool. 

It's April of 1998, and Jack Nicklaus, at age 58, just shot a final round 68 on Masters Sunday. 

Here's some of Reilly Column:

Couples kissed. Strangers hugged. Women in heels threw elbows for position. Fifty-eight-year-old Jack Nicklaus had just birdied the 15th hole on Sunday to get within two shots of the Masters lead, and all heaven was breaking loose.

And 12 years earlier, in 1986, here's what Reilly wrote about Jack's improbably come-from-behind victory to capture his 6th Green Jacket. 

But as Sunday's round began, Nicklaus looked as if he was going to keep on doing what he had been doing, which was knocking the ball tight and putting loose. He missed four-footers at the 4th and the 6th, and when he got to the 9th tee, he was right where he started—two under. He was also five shots behind Norman.

Then, suddenly, all heaven broke loose.

How much do they pay this guy?

So Long Schill

Curt Schilling, winner of 216 games and a savior to Red Sox fans everywhere, officially retired today, taking with him a World Series co-MVP award, three World Series rings and the most famous blood-stained sock in sports history. 

Here is Schilling's goodbye, via his blog, 38pitches.com

“Turn out the lights, the party’s over”

I used to wait with bated breath for Don Meredith to start singing that on “Monday Night Football.” Normally, it was sweet music if the Steelers were playing.

If I could get him to sing it again, I would. This party has officially ended. After being blessed to experience 23 years of playing professional baseball in front of the world’s best fans in so many different places, it is with zero regrets that I am making my retirement official.

With 216 wins, a 3.46 ERA, an absurd 4:1 K/BB ratio and a membership to one of the most exclusive clubs in baseball history, the 3000 strikeout club, Schilling has over the course of 20 seasons built himself a great resume worthy of Hall of Fame induction. But it's Schilling's work in the postseason -- when it truly matters most, where legacies are conceived and indelible images are woven into the fabric of America -- that cements his Hall of Fame candidacy and earns him a plaque in Cooperstown.

October Magic

ESPN's Jayson Stark kind of stole my thunder with his column earlier today, but the numbers are worth repeating. 

Quite simply, Curt Schilling is the best postseason pitcher of our generation, and he may just be the greatest October hurler the game has ever seen. 

His 11-2 postseason record gives him the highest postseason winning percentage (.846) for any pitcher with a minimum of ten starts. And his 2.23 ERA, procured over the span of 133 postseason innings, ranks second all-time to Christy Mathewson's 0.97 ERA (min. 100 innings pitched). 

However, two extenuating factors make Schilling's postseason ERA even more impressive than Matthewson's: 1) Mathewson did his work during the dead-ball era. 2) Schilling's 2.23 ERA includes his start against the Yankees in Game 1 of the 2004 ALCS, a game in which a hobbled Schilling, pitching on one leg, allowed six earned runs in three innings of work. If you throw out that start, the big right-hander's ERA shrinks to 1.86. 

And what about Schilling's 11-2 mark in the postseason? It would actually look even more impressive if his teams gave him a few more runs to work with or if Mitch Williams and Byung-Huyn Kim had their respective heads screwed on tightly.  

During Game 1 of the '93 NLCS, which pitted Schilling's Philadelphia Phillies against the Atlanta Braves, Schilling exited the game with a 3-2 lead after allowing just 2 earned runs in 8 innings and striking out 10 batters. But in the 9th, hothead Mitch Williams came in and blew the save, giving Schilling a no decision in a game the Phils would win in the 10th inning.

In Game 5 of that same series, Schilling again tossed 8 spectacular innings, allowing just 1 earned run and fanning 9 batters before giving way to Mitch Williams, who blew yet another save en route to a 4-3 Phillies victory in 10 innings. For the second time that series, Schilling pitched brilliantly but received a no decision. 

During Game 4 of the 2001 World Series, when Schilling's Arizona Diamondbacks squared off against the Yankees, Schilling tossed 7 innings of one run ball (9 strikeouts) and handed a two run lead to Dbacks closer Byung-Hyun Kim. Despite striking out the side in the bottom of the 8th, Kim blew the save in the 9th when Tino Martinez drilled a two-run shot over the right center-field wall. Again, Schilling was left with nothing to show for after pitching superbly and shutting down the 3-time defending champions. 

In game 7 of that World Series, which saw Schilling matched up against Roger Clemens, the husky right-hander allowed just two runs in 7.1 innings, but left in the 8th with his team trailing 2-1 after Alfonso Soriano golfed an ankle-high splitter into the left-field bleachers. The Dbacks would mount a rally against Mariano Rivera in the bottom of the 9th to win the series, and Schilling, along with teammate Randy Johnson, would be named Co-World Series MVP.

And finally, in Game 2 of the 2002 NLDS against the St. Louis Cardinals, Schilling tossed a brilliant 7 innings, allowing just 1 run and striking out 7 batters. But a slew of Cardinals pitchers held the Dbacks offense at bay, and the Red Birds would go on to win the game (and the series) by a score of 2-1. 

Had a few favorable but otherwise minor events happened during these five game -- five games in which Schilling could have easily won if not for ill-fated closers or feeble offensive performances by his own team -- Schilling's career postseason record would be 16-2. 

Unbelievable. 

The Sox

Everyone around here knows the story. The Sox broker a deal for Schilling in the winter of 2003. The team has but a few days to convince Schilling to waive his no-trade clause and come to Boston. The deal goes down to the final hours. Neither sides thinks it's going to get done...until finally, thanks to the inexorable dedication and exhaustive preparation by the Sox front office, Schilling signs the dotted line and agrees to pitch for the good guys. 

Five years later (who else feels old by reading that?) Schilling leaves baseball after delivering on his promise of a World Series championship, and as an added bonus he figured what the hell and gave us two.  

Obviously, I and every non-pink-hat-wearing (got any Remdawg!?) Sox fan under the sun truly appreciate what #38 did. Which makes all the gushing and romanticism being throw toward Schilling today both expected and deserved. But I have to admit, at first blush, I didn't really have any connection toward the guy. After all, he wasn't there like Pedro or my distant grandfather Jimy Williams was during my adolescent years, when at 7:05 PM I'd be hunkered down in my room watching my beloved team instead of going swimming or playing wiffleball or socializing with my friends -- all of which came much to the chagrin of my mother. 

So when I heard of Schilling's retirement, I didn't really become reflective or emotional as I did when my distant grandfather Jimy, sporting his trademark flat-brimmed hat, inexplicably quizzed me on late 90's Red Sox baseball during a prolonged conversation in Spring Training 2008. But after thinking about it for a few minutes, I realized I had witnessed first-hand some of Schill's biggest moments in a Sox uniform. 

I was there in September 2004, as a college student in my first few days away from home, when Schilling easily handled the Devil Rays and earned his 20th victory of that monumental season. A few days before the game I ambled down to Fenway with a couple of new-found friends and ended up buying a single ticket in the loge box for $70. No one else wanted to spend that much money to see the Devil Rays play, so I went to the game alone -- the guy next to me must have said, "You must really like this team" about a half dozen times during the game -- and came pretty damn close to a foul ball. 

Days later, this time against the Orioles, I was there again to witness arguably Schilling's most dominating performance in a Sox uniform, an 8 inning 14-strikeout gem against the Baltimore Orioles. My friend Viel gave me an extra ticket, and along with his dad and a family friend, we took in Schilling's masterpiece from next to the Sox dugout and received the added bonus of witnessing our first walk-off win. Second-baseman (and eventual postseason hero) Mark Bellhorn singled home the winning runs to give the sox the 3-2 win. 

The next season, in July 2005, I was there when Schilling made his triumphant return from an ankle injury and debuted as the Red Sox' new Closer. Fittingly, his first appearance came against the Yankees, but Schill gave up a 2-run BOMB to A-Rod (I think the ball is settling in over the mid-West at this point) and the Sox lost 8-6. After the game, as my friend Dunbar and I made our way back to his car, a guy stopped me on the street and somewhat sarcastically asked, "Who won the game?" 

'Are you fucking kidding me?' I responded. Turns out the guy was a Sox fan and I misinterpreted his tone of voice. 

About a year later, in May 2006, five of my friends and I were there when Schilling notched his 200th career victory. After the game, with the packed house remaining in their seats, Schilling emerged from the Sox dugout, tipped his cap and waived to the crowd, which showered him with cheers and congratulations. 

And in 2007, Schilling's last year as an active major leaguer, I was there for Game 6 of the ALCS when he guided the Sox to an easy 12-2 victory to force a Game 7. By that point Schilling was already in the autumn of his career, his fastball rarely touching 90 MPH but his location as precise as ever. Thanks to my old man I was in Standing Room Only that night -- he was sitting cozily on the third-base line -- freezing my ass of in the cold October weather. And thanks to Schilling (with some help from JD Drew), I was there the next night as well (with my old man) to witness the Sox win the pennant. 

Even with all of these baseball memories provided by Schilling, two in particular stand out above the rest. 

The first of which occurred in October 2004, in Game 5 of that once-in-a-lifetime series against the Yankees. In the middle of the 10th inning, or maybe it was the 11th, my father and I stood up from our seats located on the right-field line as Schilling, limping noticeably on his sutured right ankle, ambled to the Sox bullpen alongside teammates Derek Lowe and Tim Wakefield. At that moment in time -- down three games to one in the series -- the Sox were involved in a protracted and eventually cataclysmic extra-inning affair with the Yankees. But the site of Schilling and company walking out to the pen, amidst beseeching screams from an eternally hopeful but nervous crowd, is an image I remember vividly. 

But the moment I remember most fondly, however, occurred in October 2007. On the day of Game 2 of the World Series I was asked by a professor to accompany a friend down to Fenway Park to shoot a video previewing the upcoming game. While setting up our equipment I struck up a conversation with four guys from out of town who were at the park covering the game for a Caribbean news channel. I noticed their media passes, and to pass the time I decided to strike up a conversation. 

Me: "You guys going to the game tonight?"

Them: "Yeah."

Me: (playing dumb) "Cool. Do you have passes or tickets?"

One of the guys: "We have both."

Jokingly, I asked the guy if he could spare an extra ticket. And after looking at his friends and nodding, he reached into the inside pocket of his jacket, pulled out a ticket, then stood up and handed it to me. After wetting my pants, he pulled out another ticket for my friend Elyce. 

"Have a good time," he said. 

For my first World Series game I arrived at the park roughly two hours earlier than usual, but could you really blame me? At about 8:30 the game started and Colorado jumped ahead to a quick 1-0 lead. But Schilling, as he's prone to do in the postseason, settled in and held Colorado scoreless over the next four and a third innings before Manager Terry Francona emerged from the dugout and signaled to the bullpen.

And that's when it happened. 

During the latter half of the '07 season I was resigned to it being Schilling's last in a Red Sox uniform. At age 40, his best days clearly were behind him and the Sox had a slew of young pitchers waiting in his stead. So when I arrived at Fenway on that brisk October night, I knew there was a good chance that it would be the last time I'd see Schilling pitch. 

As Francona made his way to the mound, I rose from my seat in mid-conversation and stared out to the mound.

"Stand up," I said to my friend, "this is it."

A few seconds later, Schilling walked off the mound, his head down, focused intently on the well-manicured grass. As he neared the first-base foul line I kept thinking to myself, "Take off your hat. Acknowledge this." Sure enough, Schilling, keenly aware of the moment, looked up into the stands, removed his hat and held it high in the air as he soaked in the deafening cheers from 36,370 appreciative (and mindful) fans. 

When I think back to that moment, it reminds of me of an unspeakably poignant essay written by avid Sox fan Jonathan Schwartz about the one-game playoff between the Sox and Yankees in October 1978, "The Bucky Dent Game" as it came to be known.

During the bottom of the 9th, with the tying run stationed 90-feet away at third-base, an aged but still heroic Carl Yaztrzemski approaching the plate, Schwartz writes:

"I screamed at Yaz from the left-field roof, 'Bunt, goddamn it!' I even waved my arms, thinking that I might catch his eye. He'd call time out and wander out to left-field. 'What did you say?' he'd shout up at me. 'Bunt!' I'd yell back. 'Interesting,' he'd say.

Then Yaz would lay down a beauty. 

Burleson, who had taken third after Rice's fly ball, would easily score the tying run.

Carl Yaztrzemski, nearly my age. 

I gazed down at him through tears. 

I thought: Freeze this minute. Freeze it right here. How unspeakably beautiful it is. Everyone, reach out and touch it."