I'm Lazy But Here's an Update

Because of my semi-busy schedule I haven't updated my blog in nearly a week. Earlier today I endured an agonizing two-hour rain delay and killed time by eating oyster crackers in the press box. Mercifully, the game was called at around 4:00 PM, when it was clear to everyone involved that the precipitation would not subside. 

Making news on an otherwise slow news day was the announcement from Detroit Tigers President and GM Dave Dombrowski that the Tigers will not trade superstar slugger Miguel Cabrera should the team sputter in the early going. Already reeling from the economic crisis (some reports claim the team has lost upwards of 12,000 season tickets this year), the Tigers were rumored to be dangling Cabrera, who's currently in the 2nd year of his 8 year $152 million contract. 

Should the Tigers reverse course and put Cabrera on the trading block, the Red Sox are expected to be among several teams interested in the 2008 AL home-run leader. 

In case you missed it, Tim Wakefield tossed another gem today, allowing just one run in 7 innings as the Sox dismantled the Twins, 10-1. Wakefield, coming off a near no-hitter in Oakland, scattered 5 hits and struck out 4. According to my computer screen, Wakefield's knuckler was indeed dancing, as he continually baffled the Twins with butterflies breaking as much as 14 inches vertically while moving nearly a foot to either side. 

Wakefield Truly One of a Kind

You know how the phrase "he's way ahead of his time" is used to describe revolutionary figures who redefined their crafts? Babe Ruth smacked 60 home-runs during an era in which teams, several teams, accounted for less. A young fighter named Cassius Clay bloviated and jived with such remarkable rhythm decades before rappers and look-at-me athletes emulated his style. And Marty McFly, at the unforgettable Enchantment Under The Sea dance, made his guitar do things about which Jimy Hendrix could only dream. 

You know who's another revolutionary figure? Tim Wakefield. No, Wakefield hasn't reinvented the pitching wheel, nor has he altered the batter-pitcher duel. But perhaps as impressively, Wakefield, with his 65 MPH butterflies flickering to the plate, producing off balanced and untamed swings from the opposition, has extended a quirky subset of pitching long in danger of extinction. Of course, I'm talking about knuckleballers. 

Since 2000, when knuckler Tom Candiotti called it quits after 16 years in the big leagues, only eight knuckleball pitchers* besides Wakefield -- R.A. Dickey, Ryan Jensen, Jared Fernandez, Cody McKay, Steve Sparks, Dennis Springer, Charlie Zink and Charlie Haeger --  have appeared in the big leagues. Their collective results are less than inspiring. 

*I've defined knuckleball pitchers as hurlers whose primary weapon is the knuckler. Pitchers who may have dabbled with the knuckleball for a pitch or two did not qualify.

McKay pitched just two innings for the Cardinals in 2004 and did not allow a run.  Ryan Jensen dabbled with the butterfly for a few years before returning to conventional form in 2005. Jared Fernandez, with just over 100 career big league innings a 5.05 ERA, hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006. Steve Sparks, after leading the majors in complete games (8) in 2001, accumulated a 5.38 ERA in the final 524 innings of his career, retiring in 2004. In his only three full seasons of work (1997, 1998, 1999) Dennis Springer posted an ERA+ -- the ratio of his ERA to the league average ERA, adjusted for ballpark. A 100 ERA+ is average -- of 90, 87 and 89, respectively. Charlie Zink made one start with the Red Sox last season and allowed eight earned runs in four and one-third innings. Charlie Haeger, in his only major league start in 2006, allowed five earned runs in just over four innings pitched for the White Sox. And R.A. Dickey, although still appearing in the big leagues from time to time, once allowed 6 HR's in three innings of work against the Texas Rangers. 

Which brings us to Wakefield, the only knuckleball pitcher in the last decade to sustain tangible success at the big league level. Drafted as an outfielder by the Pittsburgh Pirates in the 1988 Amateur Draft (8th round), Wakefield hit .189 in his first season of minor league ball with the Watertown Pirates (Single A). He was so bad the Pirates contemplated releasing him, which would have ended his career (if you're a minor leaguer who can't break the Mendoza line, there are no second chances). 

One day, however, Wakefield's fortunes and life forever changed. While playing catch with a teammate (or is it having a catch? I'm confused), a Pirates instructor spotted Wakefield throwing some variation of a knuckleball and thought the pitch, with some further refinement, might prolong the struggling outfielder's career. Twenty years later, with 179 wins and two would-be LCS MVP's to his name -- Wakefield was superb in the '92 NLCS against Atlanta, winning two games and allowing just 6 runs in 18 innings. In the '03 ALCS, Wakfield notched two wins and a 2.57 ERA in 14 innings, allowing a series ending walk-off homer to Aaron Boone. Both series went the full 7 games. -- Wakefield continues to shine. He stands just 27 victories shy of tying Roger Clemens and CY Young (192 wins apiece) as the winningest pitchers in Red Sox history. He baffled the American League in 1995 en route to a scintillating 14-1 start, finishing the season at 16-3 with a 2.95 ERA, the latter of which ranked 2nd best among AL starters (Randy Johnson lead the league at 2.48). 

Fittingly, after enduring a three game slide and a bitter 2-6 start, Wakefield put the rest of the Sox on his shoulders today, the ageless right-hander tossing a complete game in which he allowed just four hits, two runs and took a no hitter into the 8th inning. 

Wakefield simply bedazzled an Oakland lineup that so thoroughly dominated pitchers Jon Lester and Daisuke Matsuzaka the previous two nights. His performance couldn't come at a better time, as Manager Terry Francona, thanks to Matsuzaka's abysmal 1 inning 5 run performance, was forced to dip into his bullpen in the 2nd inning of last night's 12-inning affair. 

With all the talk about the Sox' considerable pitching depth -- Michael Bowden, John Smoltz, Clay Buccholz and Justin Masterson each provide the team with a viable option for the rotation should someone fall to injury -- Wakefield often gets lost in the shuffle.  He is a 42-year old knuckleball pitcher who has battled back, oblique and shoulder problems for the previous three seasons. But his performance today, when his team needed it most, speaks volumes to his ability and perseverance that allowed him to transform himself from floundering minor league outfielder into one of the game's most consistent producers. 

No, Wakefield is not ahead of his time. But he acts as a reminder of the game's glory days, a relic that inspires memories of doubleheaders, 10 cent hotdogs, two-hour game times and grainy footage. His story, and everything he now represents, reminds me of a Time magazine from Michael Jordan's second retirement. On the cover was a picture of Jordan's face, calmly stationed in front of a dark backdrop. Under the picture was a caption that read "We May Never See His Likes Again." 

A Masterpiece

On Easter Sunday 2004, a half decade ago, my life was in its middle stages of adolescence. 

At the time I had yet to graduate high school or earn my driver's license. At the time I still adhered to a staunch 11 PM curfew and passed the time by mounting plastic reindeer in provocative positions and playing the eternally addictive game Vice City. To top it all off, I still rooted fervently for a team mired in an 86-year championship drought and couldn't finish off a six pack of Bud Light if you paid me. 

What does this have to do with anything? Well, on that chilly, wind-swept Easter Sunday -- on which David Ortiz smacked his first walk-off blast in a Red Sox uniform, foreshadowing a magical season full of impossible feats (for him and the team) -- I witnessed the greatest Masters final round of my lifetime. 

That is, until yesterday. 

What made 2004 so special was that Phil Mickelson, mired in a burdensome drought of his own, snapped an 0-46 record in major championship play to capture his first Green Jacket, the left-hander shooting a 4-under par 32 on Augusta's fabled back 9 and draining a 20-foot birdie putt on 18, amidst a throng of sweaty patrons stacked more than a dozen deep, to earn a one shot victory.

What made yesterday so special -- the great play, the Sunday roars the sudden death playoff holes -- cannot be adequately put into words. Paired together in the final round of a major for the first time in seven years, the Nos. 1 and 2 ranked golfers in the world, Tiger Woods and Phil Mickelson, began their Masters Sunday afternoon with a flurry. 

Woods began his day with a birdie at the par-5 2nd hole but fought his swing for much of the opening nine. A wayward tee shot on the 5th resulted in Woods' scrambling to save par, and an errant approach to the par-4 7th left him navigating a slick, 50-foot downhill putt on the sloping Augusta greens. 

But on the par-5 8th, at 570 yards the longest hole at Augusta, Woods' fortunes (and swing) improved. With his 2nd shot, his ball sitting 275 yards away from a green located some 30-feet above him, Woods nutted a 3-wood to within 35-feet and drained the putt for an eagle 3. 

Hard to believe, but Woods' 3-under par 33 on the front nine looked almost pedestrian when compared to Mickelson's dazzling performance. With birdies at 2,3,5,6,7 and 8, Mickelson took the turn after shooting a 6-under par 30, the lowest front nine score in a final round in Masters history. 

The two heavyweights brought their fight to the back nine, trading birdies at 13 and 15 and finding themselves just two shots back of leader Kenny Perry. But Mickelson, after hitting his tee shot into Rae's Creek on 12 and missing a short putt for eagle on 15 and another for birdie on 17, simply gave away too many shots and ended his day, perhaps fittingly, by giving a shot back at 18. 

Tiger brought the crowd to its feet and the roars to their apex by knocking his approach shot on the famed par-3 16th to within 5 feet, converting the next putt for a birdie 2 and putting himself within striking distance of the leader. But like his counterpart Mickelson, Woods appeared to run out of gas, bogeying 17 and 18 en route to a final round 68 and a 6th place finish. 

While neither Woods nor Mickelson took home the Green Jacket, they provided the patrons -- at Augusta they're not fans, they're patrons -- with a memorable duel and the tournament with an unmistakeable gusto that it had sorely lacked in recent years. As Bob Harig of ESPN said, "They replaced victory...with memory."

The heavyweights now departed, it looked for all the world that 48-year old Kenny Perry, one shot clear of the field, would capture his first ever major. At the 16th, the hole that has played witness to so many of Augusta's most cherished moments and indelible images -- from Jack's emotional near-ace in 1986 (he had tears in his eyes walking up to the green) to Tiger's improbable chip-in four years past -- Perry appeared to engender a memory of his own, sticking his approach shot to within inches of the cup. After tapping in for birdie, Perry pulled two shots ahead of Chad Campbell and the charging Angel Cabrera, who made a birdie on 16 himself. 

To this point in the tournament Perry had worked the ball from right to left, his natural trajectory, hitting fairways and greens and making enough putts to put him in the driver's seat. Indeed, despite possessing average length off the tee, Perry had so brilliantly navigated Augusta's elongated confines and strategically placed pin locations that a two-shot lead with two holes to play seemed nearly insurmountable. 

But the pressure of holding a lead in a major, on the final leg of the Masters, proved once again to be an equalizer. Like Curtis Strange, Seve Ballesteros and (more famously) Greg Norman before him, Perry succumbed to the nerves and tension so inherent at Augusta National. With bogies at 17 and 18, Perry fell back into a three-man playoff with Chad Campbell and Angel Cabrera. 

After exchanging pars on the 73rd hole, played on the 18th, Cabrera and Perry walked a few feet to the 10th tee. Campbell, who played a magnificent tournament and lead going into the weekend, failed to convert a 7-footer for par and was eliminated. 

In the middle of the fairway, with nary a breeze bristling atop the stately pines, Perry hooked his short iron into the pine straw, effectively dismantling his tournament hopes. Cabrera, who knocked his approach to within 18 feet, two putted for par and the championship. 

With that par came the Argentine's first Green Jacket, and his resulting fist pump an emotional coda to the most exciting Masters Sunday of my lifetime. 

A Masterpiece, indeed. 

Lester's Workload, The Bird and Last Minute Picks

Here's a number potentially critical to the Sox' success this season: 77. 

Including the postseason, Jon Lester tossed 237 innings last season, a 77-inning jump from his 2007 total (160 IP). Regardless of one's medical history, studies have shown that pitchers who experience a significant jump in innings pitched from one season to the next (usually around 30 IP or more for young guys) are at greater risk of suffering an arm injury. 

In 2003, former Cubbie Mark Prior pitched 234.2 innings, sixty-seven more (167.2) than he threw the previous season (minor league numbers included). Prior, who began the 2004 season on the DL due to a strained achilles tendon, has since suffered a rash of arm injuries that has resulted in two major surgeries (both on his right shoulder) and significant time on the disabled list. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006. 

While Prior is the poster-child of pitcher abuse, the damage isn't limited to him. Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels, who logged more than 260 innings in 2008 (71 more than the previous season), has already experienced soreness in his elbow and will miss Opening Day. 

Tom Verducci, the venerable Sports Illustrated baseball scribe who authored Joe Torre's infamous book The Yankee Years, has spent years researching the effects of increased workloads on young hurlers. 

Entering the last three seasons (2006-08), Verducci identified 24 pitchers as being in the "danger zone" based on an increase in innings of 30 or more before their 25th birthday. Of those 24, 16 suffered injuries that year. Only one of the 24 at-risk pitchers managed to get through that "year-after" without an injury or a worse ERA (Ubaldo Jimenez of the 2008 Rockies). The average increase in ERA was more than a full run. The casualty list includes Francisco Liriano, Anibel Sanchez, Gustavo Chacin, Fausto Carmona, Scott Mathieson, and Dustin McGowan, to name a few.

Furthermore, the offer goes on to offer this damning nugget:

For 2009, Verducci has identified 10 young pitchers in the danger zone. Hamels ranks second to Boston's Jon Lester on the list as ranked by increase in workload.

Perhaps the most tragic pitcher abuse story is that of Mark Fidrych. In 1976, The Bird, as he was called, electrified the baseball world with his bizarre, humorous antics and considerable talents.  At the ripe age of 21, Fidrych hurled 250 innings at a 2.34 ERA. He was voted Rookie of The Year and finished second in the Cy Young race behind the Hall-of-Famer Jim Palmer. 

The Bird, who led the AL with 24 complete games that year, simply captivated the auto-haven of Detroit. To say The Bird was eccentric is to say Erin Andrews is cute. The man talked to baseballs on the mound. He appeared to build sand castles during games, when he was pitching. He was given his nickname because people thought he resembled Big Bird from Sesame Street. 

As you can imagine, Tigers fans (and the rest of baseball, for that matter) immediately took to him. When asked if they've seen Fidrych pitch, the Tigers faithful responded, "Who's Fidrych?" But when asked if they've seen The Bird pitch, they'd exalt. 

Indeed, The Bird was such a popular figure that, in order to escape the incessant media requests, he purposely didn't own a telephone (if you wanted to talk to him, you had to knock on his door). In that 1976 season, The Year of The Bird, the Tigers drew roughly 1.5 million fans. Amazingly, 40% of that figure (some 600,000 people) showed up when Fidrych took the mound. 

But, like all great parties, his time was short lived. In 1977, just one year after his magical season, The Bird suffered a broken wing (torn rotator cuff) that would go misdiagnosed for nearly eight years. As a result, he never pitched 100 innings in any future season and was out of baseball by 1981. 

Let's hope Lester doesn't suffer the same fate. 

I've been extremely lazy with my predictions, so I'll throw out a few last minute prognostications before Brett Myers takes the mound tomorrow night. 

NL East:

1st Place: Mets 93-69 - With K-Rod and the superior Putz (if healthy) at the back end of the 'pen, The Metropolitans won't blow 29 saves like last season. 

2nd Place: Phillies 89-73 - The ageless Jamie Moyer is due for a regression (3.71 ERA). And Chan Ho Park doesn't belong in a big league rotation. 

3rd Place: Braves 84-78 - Javier Vazquez (214 K's, > 3:1 K/BB ratio) will be a force in the weaker NL. Derek Lowe, workhorse and ground ball extraordinaire, will benefit from one of the best infield defenses in baseball. 

4th Place: Marlins 80-82 - By season's end they could have the best starting staff in the NL. And by Opening Day they could have the worst defense in the game. 

5th: Nationals 67-95 - Skipper Manny Acta has his work cut out for him. With Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris in his outfield and Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn at first-base, he'll need to mix and match the lineup to keep everyone happy. Here's a thought: play Dukes, Milledge and Dunn full-time and tell the other guys to make the most of their limited playing time. 

American League West

1st Place: Oakland Athletics 85-77 - With the additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera, the AL's worst offense can expect a significant boost this season. Don't be surprised to see a 60-70 run improvement. Left-hander Brett Anderson, with a hammer curve and plus command, is a good Rookie of The Year dark-horse. 

2nd Place: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 82-80 - Even with Mark Teixeira last season, LAA finished 10th in the AL in runs scored. With the inferior Kendry Morales at 1st and the rapidly aging Vlad Guerrero in right-field (he looks like a cross between Abe Vigoda and Lieutenant Dan on the bases) the Angels will field one of the AL's most feeble lineups. Couple that with the injury-ravaged rotation -- Ervin Santana is out indefinitely; John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are out until May -- and you have a recipe for regression in 2009. 

3rd Place: Texas Rangers 74-88 - With one of the game's best farm systems, the Rangers' days of contending aren't far away. They'll score around 900 runs, but with one of the league's worst pitching and defense combinations, they'll allow close to 1000 runs, again. 

4th Place: Seattle Mariners 69-93 - With Endy Chavez in left, Franklin Gutierrez in center and Ichiro returning to right-field, the M's boast the best defensive outfield in the majors. According to The Fielding Bible, Chavez and Gutierrez were two of the best outfield glove-men in baseball last season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Eric Bedard will appreciate the added help. 

American League Central

1st Place: Cleveland Indians 86-76 - After last year's All-Star game, the Cleveland Indians scored more runs than any team in the game. Grady Sizemore, who plays a gold-glove quality center-field, is the Tribe's best hitter and a perennial MVP candidate. But the reason the Indians' offense took major strides last season was the play of Shin-Shoo Choo (1.038 OPS after the break), Asdrubal Cabrera (.398 OBP after the break) and Ryan Garko (.868 OPS in the 2nd half). And with Kerry Wood in the back of the pen and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation, the Indians have the requisite pitching to win the Central. 

2nd Place: Minnesota Twins 84-78 - It's never a good sign when your best player -- in the Twins case, catcher Joe Mauer -- suffers a back injury that baffles medical experts. While a change in medication has combatted the inflammation, the Twins have set no time-table for Mauer's return. The good news for Twinkies followers is that the starting rotation, led by young phenom Franciso Liriano, is be the best in the division. Strike-throwers Scott Baker (3.45 ERA with a 3.6 K/BB ratio in '08) and Kevin Slowley (35 BB's in 227 career innings) round out the front three. 

3rd Place: Chicago White Sox 81-81 - Aside from Mark Buehrle and John Danks, who last season quietly became one of the best pitchers in the AL, question marks abound. Gavin Floyd pitched well in '08, but expect him to come back to earth in '09. Last season, Floyd held opponents to an unsustainable .268 batting average on balls in play (his career average is .314). Unless Floyd is a baseball revolutionary who can control the direction of a batted ball, expect his ERA (3.84 last season) to balloon. 

In his last 500 innings pitched, Jose Contreras has a 4.82 ERA. The Cuban defector missed the final two months of last season with a ruptured achilles tendon. 

Rounding out the rotation is the rotund Bartolo Colon. Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young award winner, has battled a rash of injuries and hasn't thrown more than 100 innings in a season since winning his Cy Young trophy. 

4th Place: Detroit Tigers 76-86 - They've made major improvements defensively (Adam Everett could be a 20-run upgrade over the departed Edgar Renteria, Brandon Inge at 3rd), but the pitching thin Tigers simply lack the horses to contend. 

While Justin Verlander looked superb this spring, Nate Robertson is no longer a viable major league starter. Right-hander Zach Miner is a back of the rotation guy (at best). Edwin Jackson has a live arm, but he's nothing more than league average right now (101 ERA+ in '08). Furthermore, it's never a good sign when an embattled General Manager (Dave Dombrowski) resorts to rushing his most prized young arm to the big leagues (flamer-thrower Rick Porcello) as a last-ditch effort to save his job. 

5th Place: Kansas City Royals 75-87 - I don't get it. Baseball scouts, analysts and front office types have anointed the Kansas City Royals -- yes, the Royals -- as the sleeper team of 2009. Perhaps the Royals biggest flaw last season was their inability to get on base. Getting on base is, you know, important. They finished 26th in the league in on-base percentage (.320) and attempted to rectify the problem by adding Coco Crisp (career .331 OBP) Mike Jacobs (career .318 OBP) and the below replacement level Willie Bloomquist (do I even need to list his career OBP? Fine. It's .322. And his career slugging percentage (.324) is nearly as decrepit). 

The top end of the staff (Gil Meche and Zack Greinke) is admirable, but any big league rotation that contains Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez isn't a big league rotation at all. 

Tomorrow, I'll unveil my AL East picks with (hopefully) a complete analysis. In the meantime I've got to get some rest before I head to Fenway in the morning. Manager Terry Francona is having a presser at 2 PM, and hopefully I'll be able to attend. I'm not sure if it's at all possible, but I'd like to ask him about Lester's workload. 

15 Things I'm Looking Forward To This Year

I've realized that roughly 130% of my posts have been about baseball. With that in mind, I've decided to shake things up a bit and talk about myself. 

In no particular order, here's a list of events I'm looking forward to in 2009. 

1. Patriot's Day. Although I'm working the game, I plan on getting smashed at Copperfield's afterward. This could be my last Patriot's Day for a few years, so I plan on enjoying it. 

2. Douglas' 4th of July party, home to the world's most competitive croquet tournament. Thankfully, the Board of Governors convened this winter and, in a 5-4 decision, voted to outlaw the "sweep-shot." 

3. Master's Sunday. It's on Easter Sunday, which means I'll be watching it in HD at my parent's house. And you know I'll be blasting that sucker full-bore when the first piano key of the Augusta Theme is struck. 

4.  My first MLB paycheck. To say I'm due for a paycheck is like saying Nicholas Cage is due for a good movie. 

Side note: Still haven't decided if I should take Carty's advice and frame it. Maybe I'll frame the pay stub. I really need the cash. 

5. The first 70 degree day, colloquially known as "Halter Top Day."

6. A bar crawl? Looks like Greg Kulaga is coming up for a visit in mid-May and wants to do a bar crawl. Yes and yes. 

7. John Smoltz's first start at Fenway. Perhaps my favorite non-Sox player of all-time, Smoltz is due to receive a thunderous ovation on his way to the 'pen for pre-game warmups. 

8. My next trip to Eagle's Deli. This place is so delicious and the portions so generous that I need not justify its inclusion on this list. 

9. The inter-league series vs The Mets. Not only will I get to meet Ed Coleman, but there's a remote chance both Mike and The Mad Dog will attend at least one of the games. 

10. Bumping into Peter Gammons in the Media Dining Room at Fenway. How do I strike up a conversation? Should I ask him about the burgers?

11. Finding out where I'm going to be living next Fall. That's always a fun one. 

12. The first "Blue Jays Shopping Ace Halladay" headline, followed by Yankees fans inundating ESPN chat rooms and asking Keith Law, "is Melky and Kennedy too much for Halladay?"

13. Winning my fantasy baseball leagues, again. And yes, that's "leagues" with an S. 

14. Eating at UBurger this summer. Better start loosening the belt-buckle right over and get it over with. 

15. I don't want to jinx it, but hopefully I'll be able to play in the Courier Cup Classic, otherwise known as the vaunted wiffleball tournament from back home. 

NL Central Predictions

It's been a while since my last (and only) set on predictions, and with opening day just three days away it's time to make some hasty predictions. So without further ado, here are your National League Central predictions. 

1st place: Chicago Cubs 92-70

The class of the Senior Circuit, the Cubs tout arguably the league's best starting rotation and combine it with an improved lineup that led the NL in scoring last season by nearly 60 runs. 

After getting swept in the NLDS by the Dodgers, scoring just six runs in three games, the Cubs set out to bolster it's heavily right-handed lineup by adding a lefty masher.  

They found a good one. 

The Cubs this offseason inked outfielder Milton Bradley, who turns 31 in April, to a 3-year $30 million deal. The switch-hitting Bradley served primarily as DH for the Texas Rangers in 2008 and lead all AL hitters in on-base percentage (.436) and OPS (.999). The Cubbies are banking on the mercurial and oft-injured Bradley, who hasn't played more than 100 games in the field since 2004, to stay healthy and play right-field this season. With a feeble bench, the Cubs lack the necessary punch to replace Bradley should he suffer another infirmity. Signing him was a risk, but when you're the Cubs, it's one worth taking. 

Say it ain't so Lou...Last week Cubs skipper Lou Pineilla announced that reliever Kevin Gregg, who compiled 29 saves with the Marlins last season, will be the team's Closer to start the season. Carlos Marmol, considered the presumptive Closer when spring training began, will return to his role as set-up man. Last season, Marmol fanned an unthinkable 114 batters in just over 87 innings (11.75 K/9 before handing the ball over to former Cubs Closer Kerry Wood (now a Cleveland Indian). It's a puzzling decision by Pineilla, to say the least. Gregg blew 9 saves last season and walked 37 batters in 68 innings. But like Billy Koch, Joe Borowski and Joe Mesa before him, Gregg has been branded with the scarlet "C" -- signifying his role as Closer -- which means all the evidence suggesting he's a terrible (and lucky) reliever is eschewed in favor of an unquantifiable ability to Take The Ball When The Game Is On The Line. 

2nd Place: St. Louis Cardinals 84-78

Cards Manager Tony LaRussa provides ample fodder for his critics. His DUI conviction not withstanding, LaRussa's incessant over-managing -- LaRussa's decision to bat his pitchers eighth comes off as a strained attempt to make him look like a baseball revolutionary, and his bizarre propensity to burn-through three relievers every 7th inning dramatically slows the speed of the game --  and steadfast defense of disgraced slugger Mark McGwire has contributed to an image defined by arrogance and condescension. 

To Larussa's credit, he guided an underwhelming Cardinals team -- most prognosticators had them finishing as low as 4th place -- to a respectable 86 wins and runner- up finish in the Central. Lest anyone think LaRussa was solely responsible for the Cards' overachieving, Pitching Coach Dave Duncan deserves honorable mention and a hardy kudos for a job well done. 

Kyle Lohse, Braden Looper and Todd Wellemeyer combined last season for 590.2 IP and a 3.88 ERA -- great production from any NL front-three, much less these three characters. Suffice to say, the odds of Lohse, Looper (now with the Brew Crew) and Wellemeyer repeating their performances from last season are astronomical. But with Duncan at the helm, and the weaker competition in the NL, nothing would surprise me. 

Defense...wins...championships: How many times have you heard this cliche? 500? 10,000? More? That cliche certainly rings true in football and basketball, but until recently MLB front-offices either relegated defensive efficiency to the periphery or ignored it all together. But now, with the introduction of The Fielding Bible coinciding with the Tampa Bay Rays' epic ascension to the top of the standings, teams are finally understanding the value of defense and constructing their ball clubs accordingly. 

But Pratt, you ask, what does this have to do with the St. Louis Cardinals? With the departure of Cearas Izturis at shortstop and the inclusion of Kahlil Greene, the Cards may have the worst defense in the game. Their outfield, with statutes Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel (strong arm be damned) and Ryan Ludwick, is at best well-below average and at worst a gaping black hole. Their infield, save for Albert Pujols (more on him in a second), is just as execrable. 

A team's ability to convert balls in play into outs has a discernible and sometimes dramatic effect on its capability to prevent runs (take a look at the Phillies' defense last year and how it contributed to their success). That in mind, the Cards' pitching staff has its work cut out for them, as they should expect little help from the men behind them. 

As for Pujols, studies conclude that his work around the bag is just as remarkable as his ability at the plate. Furthermore, the guys at The Fielding Bible claim he's the best defensive player in the game, relative to his position. Did I mention he's still 29 years old?

3rd Place: Milwaukee Brewers 83-81

The optimism surrounding the 2009 Milwaukee Brewers seems unfounded. After losing C.C. Sabathia to free agency and Ben Sheets -- still without a job -- to injury, the Brewers began their offseason faced with the daunting task of having to replace 329 innings and a tidy 2.52 ERA. In other words, an impossibility. 

This year the Brew Crew heads into 2009 with a rotation of Yvonni Gallardo, Dave Bush, Jeff Suppan, Manny Parra and the newly acquired Braden Looper -- a far cry from the luxury they enjoyed with two aces headlining their rotation. 

Despite the feeble rotation, the Brewers, who watched Eric Gagne, Solomon Torres and company blow 26 saves last season, should enjoy a stabilized back-end of the 'pen with the addition of all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman. Now 41, Hoffman still has some fire left in the tank. He struck out just over a batter an inning for the Padres last season and posted a 1.81 ERA after the break. 

4th Place: Cincinnati Reds 78-84

This century, the Cincinnati Reds have been an exercise in futility. Since acquiring Ken Griffey Jr. in the winter of 2000, the Reds have just one winning season and a cumulative record of 673-785 (.462). 

Like the Rays and Brewers before them, the Reds this season are the sexy pick. Front-office executives, baseball scouts and people paid to analyze the game have anointed the Reds as the dark-horse team of 2009. The optimism stems from the team's young, powerful arms, in particular Edison Volquez and Johnny Cueto. 

Volquez, 25, led the Reds last season in wins (17) innings (196) strikeouts (206) and ERA (3.21) (min: 50 IP). Cueto, after a scintillating debut, cooled off down the stretch but still fanned 158 batters in 174 IP. At age 22, expect great things from Cueto going forward. 

Rounding out the Reds' starting five is veteran Aaron Harang, who reportedly dropped 25 pounds this offseason after losing 17 games and posting a 4.78 ERA in 2008; Bronson Arroyo, who scuffled last season (4.77 ERA) despite lasting 200 innings; and Micah Owings, perhaps better known for his prowess at the plate than on the mound. In a pitching starved league, this rotation could be one of the NL's deepest and most effective. 

Keep an eye on Votto: 22-year old Jay "The Boss" Bruce, who clubbed 21 HR's last season in 413 at-bats, garners most of the media and fan attention, but first-baseman Joey Votto, 25, posted an .874 OPS in his rookie season. Moreover, he plays excellent defense and his .368 OBP was 2nd best on the team. (Adam Dunn, who was traded to the Dbacks in July, ranked first at .373). 

5th Place: Houston Astros 72-90

Put it this way. When you hand Ivan Rodriguez (.319 OBP last season) a $3 million contract based on his 20 at-bats in the World Baseball Classic -- when no other team would go near him -- and that's your biggest acquisition of the offseason, then you might as well start booking tee-times for October. 

If Peter Angelos weren't such an enormous prick, Astros owner Drayton McLane would hold the ignominious title of "Worst Owner in Baseball." Come to think of it, the O's, under new Team President Andy MacPhail, seemed to have begun the arduous process of turning around their organization and appear to be headed in the right direction. So I guess that means McLane is the worst owner in the game. Years of competitive delusions and poor drafting have contributed to the Astros' free-fall in the Central, and the blame begins and ends at the top.  

Beware of The Puma: For whatever reason, Lance Berkman's nick-name is "The Puma." Why? I have no idea. Maybe he likes the shoes. 

More to the point. Since the beginning of the decade you'd be hard-pressed to find too many hitters who combine production and consistency better than Lance Berkman. He's a career, .302/.413/.560 hitters who plays great defense at first-base. Last season, Berkman hit .312, clubbed 29 HR's, scored 114 runs and drove in 106,, hit 46 doubles, drew 99 walks and posted a .420 OBP (4th in the NL). He stole 18 bases (a career high) and was caught just four times. Had the Astros been in playoff contention, he may have been the NL MVP. 

6th Place: Pittsburgh Pirates 67-95

The Pirates haven't enjoyed a winning season since Barry Bonds packed up shop and moved out to San Francisco following the '92 season. Expect nothing to change in 2009. 

The Pirates' starting five is the worst in the NL, with Ian Snell (5.42 ERA last season) grabbing the torch as the team's de facto "ace." Pat Maholm, Zach Duke, Russ Ohlendorf and Jeff Karstens round out the rotation. Pitching Coach Joe Kerrigan -- Brian Cashman's mole, if Tom Verducci and Joe Torre are to be believed -- has rehabbed his share of make-shift rotations, but even Joe's magic is rendered impotent against this bunch. 

Nate McClouth Is Overrated: Gold-Glove be damned. Nate McClouth is perhaps the worst center-fielder in the Majors. McClouth hit just .270 after the break last season, and is one of the biggest regression candidates of 2009. Good thing the Pirates brass inked him to a new deal.