Including the postseason, Jon Lester tossed 237 innings last season, a 77-inning jump from his 2007 total (160 IP). Regardless of one's medical history, studies have shown that pitchers who experience a significant jump in innings pitched from one season to the next (usually around 30 IP or more for young guys) are at greater risk of suffering an arm injury.
In 2003, former Cubbie Mark Prior pitched 234.2 innings, sixty-seven more (167.2) than he threw the previous season (minor league numbers included). Prior, who began the 2004 season on the DL due to a strained achilles tendon, has since suffered a rash of arm injuries that has resulted in two major surgeries (both on his right shoulder) and significant time on the disabled list. He hasn't appeared in the majors since 2006.
While Prior is the poster-child of pitcher abuse, the damage isn't limited to him. Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels, who logged more than 260 innings in 2008 (71 more than the previous season), has already experienced soreness in his elbow and will miss Opening Day.
Tom Verducci, the venerable Sports Illustrated baseball scribe who authored Joe Torre's infamous book The Yankee Years, has spent years researching the effects of increased workloads on young hurlers.
Entering the last three seasons (2006-08), Verducci identified 24 pitchers as being in the "danger zone" based on an increase in innings of 30 or more before their 25th birthday. Of those 24, 16 suffered injuries that year. Only one of the 24 at-risk pitchers managed to get through that "year-after" without an injury or a worse ERA (Ubaldo Jimenez of the 2008 Rockies). The average increase in ERA was more than a full run. The casualty list includes Francisco Liriano, Anibel Sanchez, Gustavo Chacin, Fausto Carmona, Scott Mathieson, and Dustin McGowan, to name a few.
Furthermore, the offer goes on to offer this damning nugget:
For 2009, Verducci has identified 10 young pitchers in the danger zone. Hamels ranks second to Boston's Jon Lester on the list as ranked by increase in workload.Perhaps the most tragic pitcher abuse story is that of Mark Fidrych. In 1976, The Bird, as he was called, electrified the baseball world with his bizarre, humorous antics and considerable talents. At the ripe age of 21, Fidrych hurled 250 innings at a 2.34 ERA. He was voted Rookie of The Year and finished second in the Cy Young race behind the Hall-of-Famer Jim Palmer.
The Bird, who led the AL with 24 complete games that year, simply captivated the auto-haven of Detroit. To say The Bird was eccentric is to say Erin Andrews is cute. The man talked to baseballs on the mound. He appeared to build sand castles during games, when he was pitching. He was given his nickname because people thought he resembled Big Bird from Sesame Street.
As you can imagine, Tigers fans (and the rest of baseball, for that matter) immediately took to him. When asked if they've seen Fidrych pitch, the Tigers faithful responded, "Who's Fidrych?" But when asked if they've seen The Bird pitch, they'd exalt.
Indeed, The Bird was such a popular figure that, in order to escape the incessant media requests, he purposely didn't own a telephone (if you wanted to talk to him, you had to knock on his door). In that 1976 season, The Year of The Bird, the Tigers drew roughly 1.5 million fans. Amazingly, 40% of that figure (some 600,000 people) showed up when Fidrych took the mound.
But, like all great parties, his time was short lived. In 1977, just one year after his magical season, The Bird suffered a broken wing (torn rotator cuff) that would go misdiagnosed for nearly eight years. As a result, he never pitched 100 innings in any future season and was out of baseball by 1981.
Let's hope Lester doesn't suffer the same fate.
I've been extremely lazy with my predictions, so I'll throw out a few last minute prognostications before Brett Myers takes the mound tomorrow night.
NL East:
1st Place: Mets 93-69 - With K-Rod and the superior Putz (if healthy) at the back end of the 'pen, The Metropolitans won't blow 29 saves like last season.
2nd Place: Phillies 89-73 - The ageless Jamie Moyer is due for a regression (3.71 ERA). And Chan Ho Park doesn't belong in a big league rotation.
3rd Place: Braves 84-78 - Javier Vazquez (214 K's, > 3:1 K/BB ratio) will be a force in the weaker NL. Derek Lowe, workhorse and ground ball extraordinaire, will benefit from one of the best infield defenses in baseball.
4th Place: Marlins 80-82 - By season's end they could have the best starting staff in the NL. And by Opening Day they could have the worst defense in the game.
5th: Nationals 67-95 - Skipper Manny Acta has his work cut out for him. With Lastings Milledge, Elijah Dukes, Austin Kearns, Josh Willingham and Willie Harris in his outfield and Nick Johnson and Adam Dunn at first-base, he'll need to mix and match the lineup to keep everyone happy. Here's a thought: play Dukes, Milledge and Dunn full-time and tell the other guys to make the most of their limited playing time.
American League West
1st Place: Oakland Athletics 85-77 - With the additions of Matt Holliday, Jason Giambi and Orlando Cabrera, the AL's worst offense can expect a significant boost this season. Don't be surprised to see a 60-70 run improvement. Left-hander Brett Anderson, with a hammer curve and plus command, is a good Rookie of The Year dark-horse.
2nd Place: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim 82-80 - Even with Mark Teixeira last season, LAA finished 10th in the AL in runs scored. With the inferior Kendry Morales at 1st and the rapidly aging Vlad Guerrero in right-field (he looks like a cross between Abe Vigoda and Lieutenant Dan on the bases) the Angels will field one of the AL's most feeble lineups. Couple that with the injury-ravaged rotation -- Ervin Santana is out indefinitely; John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar are out until May -- and you have a recipe for regression in 2009.
3rd Place: Texas Rangers 74-88 - With one of the game's best farm systems, the Rangers' days of contending aren't far away. They'll score around 900 runs, but with one of the league's worst pitching and defense combinations, they'll allow close to 1000 runs, again.
4th Place: Seattle Mariners 69-93 - With Endy Chavez in left, Franklin Gutierrez in center and Ichiro returning to right-field, the M's boast the best defensive outfield in the majors. According to The Fielding Bible, Chavez and Gutierrez were two of the best outfield glove-men in baseball last season. Pitchers Felix Hernandez and Eric Bedard will appreciate the added help.
American League Central
1st Place: Cleveland Indians 86-76 - After last year's All-Star game, the Cleveland Indians scored more runs than any team in the game. Grady Sizemore, who plays a gold-glove quality center-field, is the Tribe's best hitter and a perennial MVP candidate. But the reason the Indians' offense took major strides last season was the play of Shin-Shoo Choo (1.038 OPS after the break), Asdrubal Cabrera (.398 OBP after the break) and Ryan Garko (.868 OPS in the 2nd half). And with Kerry Wood in the back of the pen and Cliff Lee at the top of the rotation, the Indians have the requisite pitching to win the Central.
2nd Place: Minnesota Twins 84-78 - It's never a good sign when your best player -- in the Twins case, catcher Joe Mauer -- suffers a back injury that baffles medical experts. While a change in medication has combatted the inflammation, the Twins have set no time-table for Mauer's return. The good news for Twinkies followers is that the starting rotation, led by young phenom Franciso Liriano, is be the best in the division. Strike-throwers Scott Baker (3.45 ERA with a 3.6 K/BB ratio in '08) and Kevin Slowley (35 BB's in 227 career innings) round out the front three.
3rd Place: Chicago White Sox 81-81 - Aside from Mark Buehrle and John Danks, who last season quietly became one of the best pitchers in the AL, question marks abound. Gavin Floyd pitched well in '08, but expect him to come back to earth in '09. Last season, Floyd held opponents to an unsustainable .268 batting average on balls in play (his career average is .314). Unless Floyd is a baseball revolutionary who can control the direction of a batted ball, expect his ERA (3.84 last season) to balloon.
In his last 500 innings pitched, Jose Contreras has a 4.82 ERA. The Cuban defector missed the final two months of last season with a ruptured achilles tendon.
Rounding out the rotation is the rotund Bartolo Colon. Colon, the 2005 AL Cy Young award winner, has battled a rash of injuries and hasn't thrown more than 100 innings in a season since winning his Cy Young trophy.
4th Place: Detroit Tigers 76-86 - They've made major improvements defensively (Adam Everett could be a 20-run upgrade over the departed Edgar Renteria, Brandon Inge at 3rd), but the pitching thin Tigers simply lack the horses to contend.
While Justin Verlander looked superb this spring, Nate Robertson is no longer a viable major league starter. Right-hander Zach Miner is a back of the rotation guy (at best). Edwin Jackson has a live arm, but he's nothing more than league average right now (101 ERA+ in '08). Furthermore, it's never a good sign when an embattled General Manager (Dave Dombrowski) resorts to rushing his most prized young arm to the big leagues (flamer-thrower Rick Porcello) as a last-ditch effort to save his job.
5th Place: Kansas City Royals 75-87 - I don't get it. Baseball scouts, analysts and front office types have anointed the Kansas City Royals -- yes, the Royals -- as the sleeper team of 2009. Perhaps the Royals biggest flaw last season was their inability to get on base. Getting on base is, you know, important. They finished 26th in the league in on-base percentage (.320) and attempted to rectify the problem by adding Coco Crisp (career .331 OBP) Mike Jacobs (career .318 OBP) and the below replacement level Willie Bloomquist (do I even need to list his career OBP? Fine. It's .322. And his career slugging percentage (.324) is nearly as decrepit).
The top end of the staff (Gil Meche and Zack Greinke) is admirable, but any big league rotation that contains Sidney Ponson and Horacio Ramirez isn't a big league rotation at all.
Tomorrow, I'll unveil my AL East picks with (hopefully) a complete analysis. In the meantime I've got to get some rest before I head to Fenway in the morning. Manager Terry Francona is having a presser at 2 PM, and hopefully I'll be able to attend. I'm not sure if it's at all possible, but I'd like to ask him about Lester's workload.
Do you think the Prior injury has much to do with his shoulder-busting delivery (as evidenced in that great SI piece on Lincecum) instead of solely the increased workload?
ReplyDeleteAlso, sucks that I'm writing this the night after he got smacked around a bit, but I think Lester should be fine. Not '08 fine, but not "60-day DL, shoulder sublaxation" either.