Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Yankees Lineup Is No Spring Chicken

Courtesy of ESPN.com 

Hideki Matsui won't play in the outfield for the New York Yankees until at least interleague road games in June and will be restricted to designated hitter and pinch-hitting appearances until then.

Matsui is recovering from left knee surgery last Sept. 22. Yankees manager Joe Girardi doesn't want to take the chance of a setback.
With all the talk of an improved Yankees lineup -- thanks in large part to the addition of slugger Mark Teixeira -- has anyone noticed that, with a few exceptions, the pinstripes starting 9 is both aged and injury prone? 

Matsui turns 35 in June and has missed 99 games since the start of the 2006 season. Jorge Posada, who appeared in just 51 games last season before undergoing season-ending surgery on his throwing shoulder, is 37 years old and already past the age at which catchers typically hit The Wall. This ominous nugget from Fangraphs paints a grim portrait for Posada going forward. 
In baseball history, there have been only 18 seasons in which a player 37 or older has amassed 400 or more plate appearances in a season in which they appeared at 50 percent or more of their games as a catcher. And six of those belong to Carlton Fisk.
Of the same vein, Johnny Damon's 34 and, if you believe Joe Torre, contemplated giving up baseball two years ago. Derek Jeter turns 35 in June and last season posted career lows in slugging percentage (.408) and OPS (.771). Furthermore, here's a look at Jeter's numbers from the past three seasons:

          Ave OBP SLG
2006 .343 .417 .483

2007 .322 .388 .452

2008 .300 .363 .408
Notice a trend? Compound that with his world-class ineptitude with the glove, and you've got an average player on the downside of his career poised to make $20 million in 2009. Nice. 

And playing right-field for the Yankees is Xavier Nady. Acquired from Pittsburgh along with Damaso Marte, Nady had a career year last season, posting career highs in home-runs (25), RBI's (97), batting average (.305), on-base percentage (.357) and slugging percentage (.510). A super reserve, Nady appeared in 148 games last season (his personal best), but he's a career .280/.335/.458 hitter, and it remains to be seen if last year's season was an outlier or a new baseline heading forward. 

And finally we get to Alex Rodriguez, who's had an interesting offseason, to say the least. First he was nabbed for using steroids as a Texas Ranger, then it was revealed that the All-Star third-baseman would miss up to nine weeks after undergoing surgery to remove a cyst from his right hip, and just the other day he posed for bizarre pictures in a Details Magazine photo spread.

More to the point. Nate Silver, he of the 538.com and Baseball Prospectus fame, recently conducted a comprehensive examination of A-Rod's career going forward, and the results weren't rose-colored.

Among Silver's many findings is that A-Rod, after missing 24 games last season due to a strained quad, is likely to experience more injuries as his career progresses, as players approaching their mid-30's typically see their injuries compound. 

But let's not pretend A-Rod will wither away. He's still one of the top three players in baseball, and I'd expect him to hit, and hit well, when he returns. But don't be surprised if he pulls up lame in July or August. 


1 comment:

  1. Excellent observations. Fundamentally, I think that the Yankees just aren't very strong. Particularly when compared to the Sox (and Devil Rays, for that matter). Look at Boston's defense. Gold Glove-quality or above average at several positions (right field, center field, first, second) and average at just about every other spot. The Yankees don't even approach that. Look what happened when Tampa got Bartlett to steady out that infield; they're one of the better defensive teams out there.

    Bullpen is another area. The Sox and Rays are loaded with power arms; aside from Rivera and Veras, I can't really name anyone else in the Yankees' pen. The days of Mendoza and Stanton and Nelson, when the game was over if they were up after seven, are long gone. Hell, there's not even a reliable throw-him-out-every-day guy like Proctor or Sturtze there.

    People still may get lost staring at the pinstripes, but it seems like the Yankees are rotting at the core.

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